| Epidemic disaster,as a top-level disaster,has a long history.In particular,the Ming Dynasty was a small peak of epidemic disasters.Studying the characteristics of epidemic disasters in the Ming Dynasty from the perspective of geography can provide historical reference for the modern society's understanding and prevention and control of epidemic disasters.This paper mainly extracts the records of epidemic disasters in Ming Dynasty based on the Compile of Historical Data on Epidemic Disasters in China for 3000 Years:Volume from Pre-Qin to Ming Dynasty edited by Mr.Gong Shengsheng,and supplements and corrections are made with various official histories,such as History of Ming Dynasty,Records of Ming Shi and other compiled data of epidemic disasters,so as to obtain the sequence of epidemic disasters in Ming Dynasty.Using qualitative and quantitative methods,Morelet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall test,stratified color method,spatial autocorrelation,hot spot analysis,central element tool,directional ellipse tool,comparative analysis,principal component analysis and other methods,the temporal and spatial characteristics,outbreak causes and social impact of epidemic disasters in the Ming Dynasty were analyzed.The research shows that:(1)Through observation and analysis of the characteristics of epidemic disaster description,the temporal and spatial characteristics of epidemic disasters in Ming Dynasty are divided into natural and social aspects.The natural aspect refers to epidemic disasters caused by various natural disasters,and the social aspect refers to epidemic disasters caused by wars.On the natural level,the epidemic disasters were mainly concentrated in Jiajing,Wanli and Chongzhen years.The frequency of epidemic 10a ranged from 0 to 10 times/10a,with an average of 6.9 times/10a.In the Ming Dynasty,the number of natural epidemics in 10a county ranged from 0 to 357 county/10a,averaging about 52.43 county/10a,and the cumulative number of epidemics was 1415.During 1368-1644,the frequency of epidemic 10a existed oscillation periods of 8-10a,10-20a and 30-40a.20a corresponds to the first main period of epidemic disasters on the natural plane,40a is the second main period,and 8a is the third main period.During 1458-1467,the frequency of epidemic caused by natural disasters changed from low value to high value.The geographical distribution of epidemic disasters was obviously different,mainly concentrated in East China,North China,Central China and other regions,the eastern region was more than the western region,and the more eastward,the more frequent epidemic disasters occurred.The spatial distribution of epidemic disasters showed significant regional differences and stage characteristics.At the social level,the temporal and spatial characteristics of epidemic disasters were as follows:the epidemic spread in Jiajing,Wanli and Chongzhen years was larger;from the perspective of the frequency of epidemic disasters,the epidemic disasters mainly concentrated in Jingtai,Tianqi and Chongzhen years;The frequency of epidemic 10a was 0-6 times/10a,with an average of 2.36 times/10a.The county frequency of epidemic in 10a ranged from 0 to 28 county frequency/10a,with an average of 4.61 county frequency/10a,and the cumulative county frequency was 129.The frequency of epidemic 10a and county 10a changed simultaneously.During 1368-1644,epidemic frequency oscillated in periods of 10-20a,20-40a and 50-60a.60a corresponds to the first main period of epidemic disaster at the social level,35a is the second main period,and 12a is the third main period.There were no abrupt changes in 10a frequency and 10a county level in the Ming Dynasty.The degree of epidemic disasters at the social level did not change much in the whole Ming Dynasty,the spatial distribution affected a relatively small range,and the hot spots of epidemic disasters concentrated in the boundary of the Ming Dynasty.(2)The causes of epidemic outbreaks were studied from the perspectives of natural factors and social factors.The natural causes mainly included other disasters,climate change,river network density,altitude and so on.The various disasters that caused epidemic disasters in Ming Dynasty,including drought,flood,locust,wind and earthquake,etc.Frequently and for climate change in the history of the Ming Dynasty is the most cold stage,respectively,the natural and social stratification plane struck with the change of temperature departure and dry wet index comparison analysis of Ming Dynasty,Ming Dynasty natural level 10 a plague disaster frequency and temperature departure and dry wet index of correlation coefficient of 0.738 and 0.454 respectively,through the 0.01 and 0.05 level of significance test,in the Ming Dynasty society level 10 a plague disaster frequency and temperature departure and dry wet index of correlation coefficient of 0.257 and 0.072 respectively,not through the test of significance,struck in Ming Dynasty and negatively correlated with changes in temperature,and dry wet into reverse changes,but there was no significant correlation,In other words,epidemic disasters are more closely related to climate change.In Ming Dynasty,epidemic disasters were more likely to occur in areas with developed water system.In Ming Dynasty,epidemic disasters were more likely to occur in areas with flat terrain.The social causes mainly include war,population density,the rulers' epidemic control policy,traffic conditions,etc.In war,epidemic disasters are mainly caused by three ways:bringing epidemic disasters after the war,spreading epidemic disasters during the war,and epidemic disasters appearing in the area during the non-war period.The rulers lack of government affairs,will make the small scope of infectious diseases can not be controlled and cause epidemic disasters;The densely populated areas are the areas with frequent epidemic disasters.Areas with dense road networks are those with frequent epidemic disasters.The outbreak of epidemic in Ming Dynasty was caused by both natural and social factors mentioned above.(3)The application of principal component analysis method to explore the combined influence of Ming Dynasty environment factors on the epidemic disease disaster,it is concluded that in the Ming Dynasty struck the environmental factor consists of three principal components,the first principal component is a composite factor,natural disasters,transportation,population distribution,contribution rate is 50.43%,the contribution rate of various natural disasters caused struck for drought>earthquake>locust>storm>flood,the natural disasters,traffic and population density was positively correlation with struck the cumulative frequency and all through the 0.01 level of significance test;The second main component is climate factor,and its contribution rate is 17.38%,including temperature anomaly and dry-wet index.The temperature anomaly is positively correlated with the cumulative frequency of epidemic disasters,and through the significance test level of 0.05,the dry-wet index is positively correlated with the cumulative frequency of epidemic disasters but is not significant.The third main component is hydrology and elevation factors,with a contribution rate of 8.85%,including river network density,altitude,etc.(4)The negative effects of the epidemic in the Ming Dynasty include the reduction of population,the wastage of land,the impact on human ethics,the difficulties in living,and the social turbulence.Struck the positive impact of Ming Dynasty,including medical,struck coping mechanism from two aspects,such as the improvement of the method to study the rash of wool for example demonstrates struck to promote the progress of medical skill,plague disaster response mechanism of Ming Dynasty established the strict epidemic reporting system,the body of the report early Ming struck,including the fact,tour,local government and so on,the body of the late Ming struck evolved into the tour. |
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