A Study On The Impact Of Urban Credit Environment On Default Risk Of Personal Loan Guarantee Insurance

With the development of China's economy,people's demand for credit in production and life is growing day by day.In order to meet the financing needs of low-income groups,the state is gradually promoting the construction of inclusive financial economy to popularize financial services to the public and benefit the people's livelihood.Under the support of market demand and national policies,insurance companies cooperate with banks or qualified financial institutions to guarantee insurance loan business,providing credit enhancement services for low-income groups and small and micro enterprises,so that borrowers can smoothly pass the bank's audit and obtain loans.Therefore,insurance plays an important role in helping the construction of Inclusive Finance.The innovation of this paper is to combine the default probability of personal loan guarantee insurance with the research of urban credit environment,discuss the default problem of personal loan guarantee insurance from the macro point of view of urban credit environment,and try to introduce the influence of urban credit environment on default into the research of loan guarantee insurance risk management,which breaks through the previous microcosmic characteristics of policyholders and asset conditions On the level of loan guarantee insurance risk.The deficiency of this paper is that the longest underwriting period of the sample data is 3 years,and the default performance covers 2015-2019.Since the level of urban credit environment will not change significantly in a short period of time,the city credit index selects the 2017 urban credit score between 2015 and 2019 as the research variable,but the research conclusion may have some deviation.Based on the personal loan guarantee insurance business data of a property insurance company,combined with the China urban commercial credit environment index(CEI)data,and through the Logit linear regression analysis,this paper concludes that the urban credit environment has a direct impact on the risk of default of personal loan guarantee insurance,that is,the better the urban credit environment,the lower the risk of default of personal loan guarantee insurance,and vice versa.In the process of empirical analysis,we analyzed and studied the correlation between the credit index of each city and the default situation of personal loan guarantee insurance through the dimensions of individual characteristics such as gender,age,marital status,education level,and underwriting amount,underwriting period,underwriting rate,etc,The conclusion is highly consistent with the analysis results of Logit regression model,which indicates that the benchmark analysis results in this paper are robust.In addition,through the analysis of the characteristics of policyholders,it is also proved that the urban credit environment has a direct impact on the risk of default of personal loan guarantee insurance.The risk of default of male policyholders is the main risk source of personal loan guarantee insurance.When the policyholder is male,the quality of urban credit environment is directly related to the risk of default of personal loan guarantee insurance.The risk of default of female policyholders is lower than that of male policyholders,and is not affected by the level of urban credit environment.In the empirical analysis of the age characteristics of the policyholders,the results are different from the previous scholars' research conclusions.Combined with the characteristics of personal loan guarantee insurance to increase the credit of the policyholder,the conclusion is in line with the reality.Under normal circumstances,the elderly borrowers can obtain loans directly from the bank due to their long working years and relatively high income level.However,if the credit enhancement of the insurance company is required to obtain the loan qualification,it indirectly indicates that their own risk of default is high.Therefore,in the personal loan guarantee insurance industry.In fact,the risk of default of the elderly policyholders is higher than that of the young policyholders,which is also a meaningful finding in this paper.In addition,further research found that the risk of default of policyholders over 39 years old would be affected by the urban credit environment,but policyholders under 39 years old did not have such performance.In terms of education level,the policyholder with higher education background has better understanding and cognition of the concept of integrity and the awareness of performance than the policyholder with lower education background,so the policyholder with higher education background has lower probability of default.In the analysis of the classification of policyholders' education background,the result is that the policyholders with college education background will directly affect their default performance due to the good or bad urban credit environment.Policyholders with a college degree or less were also not affected.According to the conclusion of this paper,three policy suggestions are put forward:(1)government agencies should strengthen the construction of urban credit system.The perfect urban credit system includes laws and regulations,economy,culture,information technology and other comprehensive factors,which is the basis of urban credit development.(2)In terms of risk management,insurance companies should establish professional risk control team,accurate credit scoring system,and improve risk control system.In the aspect of risk identification,it is suggested that the insurance company should add urban credit environment factors to the evaluation of policyholders' credit rating.For policy holders with certain characteristics,the proportion of urban credit index parameters in the credit scoring model should be increased to reduce the credit rating of such policyholders.At the same time,the urban credit indicators should be adjusted according to the changes of urban credit environment to ensure the accuracy of risk control model Degree.(3)In the underwriting process,insurance companies should use big data to fully and effectively verify the authenticity of the applicant's application information,and accurately identify the applicant's credit risk.At the same time,the insurance company should also fulfill the responsibility and obligation of timely and accurate uploading information to the PBC credit reference system,so as to form a virtuous circle between industries and effectively prevent credit risk Social credit system has a positive role in promoting.