Research On Online Education Enterprise Valuation Based On Metcalfe's Rule

As one of the greatest inventions of the 20th century,the Internet has penetrated into all aspects of human society and profoundly changed the way people live today.After 40 years of development,the Internet industry has developed from the research tools of a few people to an important part of the world economy.During the development process,it has continuously integrated with traditional industries,which has greatly changed the development model and business philosophy of traditional industries.The Internet economy has become an important driving force of China's economy.Reflected in the education industry is the rise of the online education industry.The online education industry appeared in the 1990s.After thirty years of development,it has become an important part of China's education system.In recent years,due to the increasing willingness of residents to consume in education,the increasing demand for personalized education,the deep integration of Internet technology and the education industry,and the continuous introduction of government policies,the online education industry has developed rapidly and the industry has continued to expand.In 2017,the online education market will reach 314.6 billion yuan,and it is expected to reach 586.2 billion yuan by 2022.Behind the rapid development of the online education industry is the emergence of online education companies,and financing and mergers and acquisitions in the industry are also common.However,how to make a reasonable valuation of online education companies in corporate financing mergers and acquisitions has become a problem that current evaluators must solve.Due to the uniqueness of Internet companies,the value structure of Internet companies is quite different from that of traditional companies.Online education companies have the characteristics of high income uncertainty,light assets,and user-centricity.This thesis analyzes the inapplicability of traditional valuation methods based on the characteristics of Internet companies,and then introduces them based on the core influencing factors of Internet companies—users.Metcalfe's law is widely used in the valuation of Internet companies.By modifying parameters such as user value and industry adjustment coefficients,the valuation model based on Metcalfe's law is improved to obtain a revised model.Finally,the applicability of the model is analyzed.The value of New Oriental Online Enterprise is evaluated by using the model based on Metcalfe's law and the EVA model.After comparing the market value of the enterprise,it is found that the valuation model based on Metcalfe's law is correcting business adjustments.After the coefficient,it can more accurately reflect the value of online education companies.This thesis is divided into five partsThe first part is introduction.This thesis mainly introduces the research background of this thesis,and the research status of the value evaluation of the Internet industry and its subdivision online education industry at home and abroad.Clarify the research significance,research methods and possible innovations of the paper.The second part is conceptual definition and theoretical basis.First introduced the concept,classification and profit model of the online education industry,and then introduced the Metcalfe's law and the related valuation model based on the Metcalfe's law.The third part is the analysis of online education industry and the impact of industry characteristics on the choice of valuation model.First,analyze the current status and development environment of the online education industry,and study the impact of industry characteristics on the selection of valuation methods.Second,analyze the applicability of traditional valuation methods based on different traditional valuation theories,and conclude that the first three traditional valuation methods have Obvious flaws,and although the EVA valuation method has deficiencies in the valuation of online education companies,it still has great advantages over the other three valuation methods;finally,the applicability analysis of the Metcalfe valuation method,To determine the necessity of revising Metcalfe's valuation method,to elaborate various parameter revision processes,and to build a more realistic valuation model.The fourth part is evaluation case analysis.This part takes New Oriental Online as a case,first introduces the basic situation,business composition,and industry status of the company.On this basis,the valuation model based on Metcalfe's law and the EVA model are used to evaluate the company's specific reference date.The overall value is evaluated,and the respective valuation results are compared with New Oriental Online's benchmark market value to observe the error to verify the applicability of the revised model.The fifth part of the full text of research conclusions and prospects.This part is to summarize the full text,draw the conclusion of the full text,and point out the shortcomings of this thesis,on this basis,put forward the possible future development direction.This paper adopts literature research method,case research method and comparative analysis method to construct a valuation model based on Metcalfe's law,and verifies the effectiveness of this model in practical operation through actual cases.The research results of this thesis,on the one hand,have filled the vacancy of the evaluation industry in the online education enterprise value evaluation to a certain extent,and provided a reference for the evaluation industry to carry out online education enterprise value evaluation business;Revised and improved on the above,put forward a valuation model with strong applicability,and expand the method of enterprise value assessment.