Research On The Structural Resilience And Development Pattern Of Trade Networks In Countries Along The “Belt And Road”

The Belt and Road initiative aims at improving the level of economic integration between China and other countries,and its focus is to clarify the position,role and structural resilience of each country in the trade network,and the factors which affect the export trade and its potential of different trade modes.In this paper,based on the theory of complex network,we firstly analyze the structure feature of the trade network and the regional evolution characteristics of the Belt and Road.Then,we examine the motifs of the trade network structure among countries.By identifying the important motifs and key nodes in the network,we use disruption simulation for these nodes and motifs.And then explore the influencing factors of export trade of countries or motifs,and calculate the trade potential of each country according to the model.Finally,according to the results and analysis of the study,the conclusions and policy recommendations are made on the results.The main research work and conclusions of this article are as follows:(1)Based on network structure's features analysis and motif recognition,we analysis the influence mechanism of nodes and motifs on network structure resilience by combining motif analysis with interrupt simulation.The results showed that: the Belt and Road trade network shows the characteristics of "small world",and has high connectivity and network cohesion.Secondly,the results of motif detection show that in the Belt and Road trade network,China and Poland have played the role of export country nodes,Turkey has played the role of trade transfer station,Russia and India act as trade importing country nodes,and the "reciprocal" pattern plays a vital role in network relations.Finally,the failure of the motifs has a greater impact than the country node on the structural resilience of the network,and the failure of the motif composed of China,Turkey and Russia has the greatest impact on the structural resilience of the trade network.(2)We construct the trade gravity models of single country and motif country,and quantitatively analysis the influencing factors by combining the method of motif analysis and trade gravity model.The results show that: national economic scale,common language,signing free trade agreements and the total population of importing countries significantly promote the export trade volume,distance will hinder the export trade between the two countries,and the promotion effect of border between the two countries is not significant;the "reciprocity" pattern will weaken the influence of adverse factors of trade between countries to a certain extent,such as distance.At the same time,it will reduce the trade restrictions brought by the total national economy and population and better stimulate the trade potential.