Research On The Evolution Of Trade Patterns And Influencing Factors Of The Eu Carbon Emissions Market

With the rapid development of the global economy,greenhouse gas emissions are increasing day by day.More attention has been paid to the issue of global warming.Carbon emissions trading is not only a good policy tool to regulate greenhouse gas emissions through market mechanisms,but also an important institutional innovation to promote the integration of low-carbon technologies into high-quality economic development.In 2005,the world’s first large-scale carbon emission trading system was established by the European Union(EU).The EU carbon market supports the participation of many countries and covers a wide range of industries,and plays a pivotal role in the global carbon trading market.Based on the complex network theory,this dissertation takes carbon trading among EU member states as the research object.Evolutionary characteristics of the EU carbon market’s trade patterns are revealed from the national and multi-temporal perspective.Influencing factors and extent of carbon trade relationships are also analyzed.Specific contents of this study are as follows:(1)Trade patterns and evolutionary characteristics of the EU carbon market are analyzed quantitatively.Firstly,an EU carbon trading bipartite network model is constructed,then the evolutionary characteristics of network structure are analyzed by topological statistics such as the density,average distance and clustering coefficient.Secondly,transaction status of EU member states is obtained through three centrality measures and the comprehensive evaluation method.Finally,the carbon trading bipartite network is divided into communities by the method of Label Propagation Algorithm weighted bipartite plus.At the same time,developmental trends,geographical distribution and stability of communities are discussed.Results show that the EU carbon trading bipartite networks have small-world characteristics,and the market is concentrated around countries with larger trading volumes.Although each buyer and seller try to maximum their benefits,the market shows balance over time and exhibits self-organization so that there is no monopoly.The centrality of EU member states is stable and changing,and trading status of buyers is more stable than that of sellers.In addition,the community structure of the carbon trading bipartite network has characteristics of EU integration in time,and coexistence of continuity and segmentation in space.(2)Trade relationships and influencing factors of the EU carbon market are studied qualitatively.Firstly,a network model of carbon trade relationships is established,and then trade preferences are analyzed by relevant topological characteristics.Secondly,the evolutionary mechanism of the core-periphery structure in the EU carbon market is explored by the core-periphery model.Finally,influencing factors and extent of the EU carbon trading are clarified by the Quadratic Assignment Procedure(QAP)analysis method.Results show that carbon trade relationship networks are quasi-scale-free and have heterogeneous characteristics,and countries with more trading partners tend to choose countries with fewer trading partners to establish carbon trade relationships.There are obvious hierarchical structure(core and peripheral)in the EU carbon market.The boundary between core and periphery continues to weaken with the development of this market.Results of QAP correlation analysis and QAP regression analysis show that there are certain differences in the influencing factors of the EU carbon trade relationship in different years.On the whole,regression results are relatively stable,and the explanatory power of the model shows a gradual upward trend.Differences in economic development levels and geographical distance are main factors affecting carbon trading.However,differences in population scale and energy consumption intensity have little effect on the carbon trade relationship network.