| Water resources are basic natural resources and strategic economic resources that are related to the national economy and people’s livelihood.It is the key factor affecting the ecological environment and an important part of the comprehensive national strength of a country.According to the data released by 2020 China Water Resources Bulletin,water resources in our country accounts for about 6% of the world’s total water resources,and the per capita water resources is only a quarter of the world average.The 21 st century,along with the development of industrialization,urbanization and agricultural modernization,there are increasing contradictions between people and water,coupled with climate change,environmental pollution and destruction of ecosystems exacerbate the problem.Water resource has become an important factor restricting the sustainable development of China’s economy and society.From the perspective of "virtual water" trade,this paper explores the inter-provincial virtual water transfer mode based on complex network theory,quantified the structural role of each province in the supply chain,and evaluated the driving effect of these structural characteristics on China’s water resources consumption.This study helps to enhance people’s understanding of regional trade and water management issues,and has positive significance for provinces to coordinate to achieve water saving goals and alleviate water shortage in China.Firstly,based on the multi-regional input-output tables of 2007,2010,2012 and2015 and the water consumption data of each province,the multi-regional input-output analysis method was used to calculate the virtual water flow embodied in the inter-provincial trade,and analyze the characteristics of its spatial transfer pattern.The results show that Xinjiang,Jiangsu,Guangxi,Guangdong and Heilongjiang have a large amount of virtual water transfer,which have a great potential for water saving.During the study period,Jiangsu,Xinjiang and other provinces with high pressure of water resource shortage are also the main virtual water net outflow provinces,which aggravate the contradiction of local water resource shortage.Regions with relatively rich water resources,such as Guangxi,export products containing a large amount of virtual water,which to some extent alleviates the pressure of water shortage in provinces downstream of the supply chain.In terms of spatial distribution,virtual water sources are mainly concentrated in the eastern,northern and southeastern coastal regions with more developed economy or agriculture,and the target areas are mainly distributed in "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei","Pearl River Delta" and "Yangtze River Delta".Furthermore,based on complex network theory,a directed and weighted inter-provincial virtual water transfer network model is constructed,and the overall structural characteristics and individual structural characteristics of the network are analyzed.From the perspective of the overall structure characteristics of the network,the virtual water transfer network presents the characteristics of a small world,that is to say,even if there is no direct trade relationship between provinces,the virtual water transfer can occur only in a small step.Network density show an upward trend during the survey period,which reflect that the virtual water trade relationship become closer and closer.The community division results of associations show the characteristics of geographical proximity,and mainly form community with "Yangtze River Delta","Pearl River Delta",northeast region and Xinjiang as the core.The virtual water transfer relationship within each community is close,but the transfer relationship between communities is sparse.From the local structure characteristics of the network,Jiangsu and Guangdong not only have high in-degree and out-degree,but also have large in-strength and out-strength,which have obvious structural advantages in the virtual water transfer network.Just because of this,these two provinces have great potential in alleviating the pressure of water resources shortage in China.In addition,The out-closeness centrality of Jiangsu,Guangdong and Xinjiang was above 0.8,indicating that virtual water flows from these provinces can flow to other provinces through a relatively short path,while the in-closeness centrality of Beijing and Shanghai is large,and virtual water from other provinces can be quickly transferred to these two regions.At the same time,both in-closeness centrality and out-closeness centrality show a slight upward trend during the investigation period,which indicate that with the increasingly close inter-provincial trade,the change of virtual water flow in each province would soon spread to other provinces.Finally,based on the constructed virtual water transfer network model,the panel regression analysis method is used to analyze the impact of the structural characteristics of each province in the network on China’s water consumption quantitatively,which fills the previous shortage of exploring the influencing factors only from the perspective of social economy.It is found that water consumption in China is largely dependent on some structural characteristics in the virtual water transfer network.At the virtual water output side,the out-degree and out-strength have a significant positive impact on water consumption in China.At the input side,the in-closeness has a significant negative impact on water consumption in China.The results show that the adjustment of unbalanced provincial consumption structure,direct production demand of downstream provinces and indirect production activities in the supply chain can help reduce the consumption of water resources.Therefore,to achieve the strategic goal of sustainable utilization of water resources in China,it is necessary for provinces to coordinate trans-regional management of water resources,improve and optimize the direct and indirect supply-demand trade structure in the whole supply chain,and weaken the positive impact of structural characteristics of virtual water transfer network on water resources consumption in China. |
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