Research On Water Resources The Carrying Capacity In Xuchang City Based On Various Evaluation Models

Under the pressure of population growth and socio-economic development,the water resources of Xuchang City show a gradual decline in both quality and quantity.Conducting research on the carrying capacity of regional water resources can provide an important scientific basis for regional sustainable development.Based on this,this paper selects Xuchang City as the research area,and constructs an evaluation system of water resources carrying capacity in Xuchang City through the collection and arrangement of data and combined with the actual local conditions.The entropy weight method and the analytic hierarchy process were used to determine the comprehensive weight of the index.Under the condition of analyzing many evaluation methods of water resources carrying capacity,MMOORA model,TOPSIS model and VIKOR model were selected to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Xuchang City from 2009 to 2018,and the evaluation results of the three models were compared and analyzed.At the same time,the bearing capacity of each subsystem is evaluated.According to the evaluation results of each system,the correlation and interaction mechanism between each system are analyzed.Taking 2018 as an example,three evaluation models are used to comprehensively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of the counties in Xuchang City and the evaluation results are compared.Based on the relevant planning,the future water resources carrying capacity of Xuchang City is predicted,and reasonable countermeasures are gived.The research results obtained in this paper are as follows:(1)According to the collected data and the status quo of social economy,combined with natural environment and the principles of selection of evaluation indicators,the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity is constructed,which includes the target layer of water resources carrying capacity in Xuchang City.And the water resources-society-economy-ecological environment are the system layer of subsystems.This system also has an indicator layer of 21 representative evaluation indicators.(2)According to the comprehensive weight of evaluation indicators,using three models to study the changing trend of water resources carrying capacity in Xuchang City,it is found that the water resources carrying capacity has a large change range and fluctuates upwards and downwards.The evaluation results of these models are generally consistent,and they can well evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of the region.The evaluation of the various subsystems affecting the water resources carrying capacity of Xuchang City.The results show that the carrying capacity of the water resources subsystem and the ecological environment subsystem fluctuates up and down.The carrying capacity of the social subsystem and the economic subsystem is on the rise.(3)By studying the correlation subsystems,it is found that the water resources subsystem has a negative correlation with the social subsystem and the economic subsystem,and a positive correlation with the ecological subsystem.The social subsystem and the economic subsystem have a significant positive correlation.By analyzing the interaction mechanism between the systems,it is found that the carrying capacity of the water resources subsystem has a greater impact on the water resources carrying capacity.Therefore,in the future,the level of regional water resources carrying capacity can be improved by focusing on improving the carrying capacity of the water resources subsystem.(4)Taking 2018 as an example,three evaluation models are used to study the water resources carrying capacity of counties and districts in Xuchang City.The results showed that the evaluation results of the three models were consistent.And the results show that the water resources carrying capacity of the counties and districts in Xuchang City are from strong to weak: Yuzhou Country,Xiangcheng County,Jian’an District,Yanling County,Changge Country,Weidu District.The water resources carrying capacity of Yuzhou City is relatively good,while that of Weidu District is relatively weak.There are regional differences in the water resources carrying capacity of Xuchang City.(5)According to the relevant planning of Xuchang City,the VIKOR model is selected to predict the water resources carrying capacity of Xuchang City in 2025 and 2030.The results showed that the comprehensive evaluation value of water resources carrying capacity in Xuchang City in 2025 was 0.753,which was in the state of IV overload.The comprehensive evaluation value of water resources carrying capacity in 2030 was 0.85,which was in the state of serious overloading of grade V.The water resources carrying capacity was weak.Due to the continuous increase of the social population and the per capita water resources decrease.The industrial and agricultural water consumption were increased.Therefore,it is necessary to continuously adjust the industrial structure,improve the utilization rate of water resources and the rate of sewage treatment to improve the carrying capacity of water resources.