Study On Long-term Economic Impact And Mechanism Of Earthquakes

China locates in the intersection area of the Pacific Rim seismic belt and Eurasian seismic belt,with wide seismic distribution,shallow source and large destructive force.The destructive effects of earthquakes can have an instantaneous impact on production factors such as capital and labor,and cause chain reactions such as the disruption to production and livelihoods,which pose a serious threat to the safety of people’s lives and property and the socioeconomic stability.In absence of effective post-disaster reconstruction measures,the economy in earthquake-stricken areas may not be able to recover to their original level of development,and a poverty trap may develop in the long term.It is therefore necessary to study the long-term economic impact and mechanism of earthquakes on earthquake-stricken areas,and understand the path to accelerate postdisaster economic recovery,in order to reduce the negative effects of the earthquakes and increase the positive effects of development.In recent years,the relationship between earthquakes and economic growth has become an important research issue,which has attracted widespread attention of scholars.However,the existing studies mainly focus on the short-term economic impact of earthquakes,and pay less attention to the long-term economic impact of earthquakes and its mechanism.Based on the Solow Growth Model,this paper constructed a theoretical analysis framework for the long-term economic impact of earthquakes.Taking the earthquake-stricken areas of 1976 Tangshan earthquake and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake as examples,this paper carried out a long time-scale empirical analysis by using the Synthetic Control Method and other methods,and summarized the main economic factors and paths by which earthquakes affect the longterm economic growth in earthquake-stricken areas.The study results showed that:(1)Capital factors,labor factors and technological progress are the three major economic factors that affect the economic growth of earthquake-stricken areas.On the one hand,the destructive effects of earthquakes can have a negative impact on production factors such as capital and labor,with correspondingly lower level of productivity,thus hindering earthquake-stricken areas’ economic growth.On the other hand,the renewal of capital and the use of new technologies brought about by post-disaster reconstruction can have a positive impact on technological progress,and promote the accumulation of the capital factors and labor factors,with a corresponding increase in total factor productivity,thereby accelerating the recovery process of the economy in earthquake-stricken areas.(2)It is difficult to promote long-term technological progress in post-disaster reconstruction,and earthquakes will not affect the long-term economic growth rate of earthquake-stricken areas.The capital renewal caused by the earthquake’s destructive effects cannot trigger technological innovation,and it cannot have a significant long-term impact on the technological progress,therefore it will not change the long-term economic growth rate of earthquakestricken areas.(3)The long-term impact of earthquakes on the three major economic factors differ in terms of mechanism and degree.As a result,there are differences in the extent to which earthquakes affect long-term economic growth of earthquake-stricken areas.Tangshan earthquake did not have an important long-term impact on the capital factors,labor factors and technological progress,so it failed to have a significant longterm impact on earthquake-stricken areas’ economic growth.Wenchuan earthquake did not have an important long-term impact on technological progress,but had a negative long-term impact on the capital factors and labor factors,so it had a negative long-term impact on earthquake-stricken areas’ economic growth.The research results of this paper have important reference value for the formulation of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction and post-disaster reconstruction strategies.