Research On The Dynamic Measurement And Influencing Factors Of Multidimensional Poverty Of Rural Households In My Country

For a long time,poverty has been a topic of widespread concern at home and abroad.In 2021,General Secretary Xi solemnly announced at the National Poverty Alleviation Summary and Commendation Conference that 98.99 million rural poor people have all been lifted out of poverty under current standards and the arduousness of eliminating absolute poverty.The task has been successfully completed.There is no doubt that China has made great achievements in poverty alleviation work that have attracted worldwide attention.In the past in the process of poverty alleviation work,the income level has always been used by the government as the standard for poverty alleviation work.With my country’s re-examination of poverty issues and rapid social and economic development,families and family members who are actually in poverty are not only in terms of income.Poverty is also manifested in other multi-dimensional welfare levels.Therefore,after 2020,the focus of my country’s poverty alleviation work will change,that is,from“absolute poverty”to“relative poverty”,from“income poverty”to“multidimensional poverty”,and the analysis of multidimensional poverty will also shift from static analysis at discrete time points.Continuous time dynamic analysis.This paper uses the 2010-2018 China Family Tracking Survey(CFPS)micro data,adopts the classic AF double critical value method,selects 4 dimensions and10 indicators to measure the multi-dimensional poverty status of rural families in my country,and further uses the non-survival analysis method.The parameter analy sis method estimates the survival function,and then uses the parameter method to estimate the coefficients of the discrete-time risk proportional model to explore th e dynamic changes of rural households’ poverty and non-poverty,and analyze the dynamic multi-dimensional poverty characteristics of rural households.The followi ng conclusions are obtained:1.The poverty incidence rate of various indicators in r ural households decreases slowly with time.The incidence rate of single-dimension al poverty in different years is significantly higher than the incidence rate of mult i-dimensional poverty.The decline in the incidence of multi-dimensional poverty is a decrease in the multi-dimensional poverty index.The main reason;2.Per capita household income,education level,and health status have the highest contribution r ate to the multidimensional poverty index.From the perspective of the contribution of the change in the deprivation rate of the two adjacent periods to the decline o f the index MPI year by year,2012-2014,The per capital income level and rural medical cooperation participation in insurance have played a major role.Between2014 and 2016,education,health,and quality of life have been improved to varying degrees;3.The shorter the duration of poverty for rural households,the better they can escape from poverty.The greater the probability,most poor farmers can get ri d of poverty quickly after experiencing short-term poverty.The longer the duration of non-poverty of farmers,the smaller the probability of falling into poverty;Indic ators that are prone to improvement in the short term will have a greater impact on farmers’ escape from poverty or fall into multidimensional poverty.Cooking w ater and electricity,education,and health have a positive effect on accelerating far mers’ poverty alleviation and reducing the risk of poverty.In the future,the criteria for poverty identification should shift from a single income standard to multi-dimensional poverty identification rules.Under the multidimensional poverty framework,while gradually increasing per capital income,for i ndicators that have a high incidence of one-dimensional poverty and a large contr ibution to the poverty index,For example,education level,health status,and living st andards should be paid more attention to cooking fuel.For a long period of time,t he focus of poverty alleviation should focus on improving the long-term multidim ensional poverty of rural families.