Research On Safety Early Warning Of Cultivated Land Resources Based On Fuzzy Pattern Recognition

Cultivated land is the most important material resource in food production.China is a big agricultural country,and the contradiction between man and land is relatively prominent.We should carry out early warning analysis of cultivated land resource security,find out the obstacle factors that restrict the security of cultivated land resources,and reflect the changing trend of cultivated land resource security in advance.It is of great significance for promoting sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources and ensuring national food security.This paper introduces the fuzzy pattern recognition theory into the research on cultivated land resource security early warning,taking Huanggang City,Hubei Province as the research object,according to the characteristics of cultivated land resources in Huanggang City,constructs an early warning index system containing 15 indicators from four aspects: human-land relationship,cultivated land quantity,cultivated land benefit and cultivated land input.The weight of each index was calculated by using the entropy weight method,the fuzzy pattern recognition model is used to analyze the current situation of the security of cultivated land resources in Huanggang City from 2006 to2020,and on this basis,the temporal and spatial variation of the security warning situation of cultivated land resources in each county is further analyzed,and the obstacle diagnosis model is used to determine the impact of Huanggang.The main obstacle factors of the city’s arable land resource security were diagnosed,and finally,the grey prediction GM(1,1)model was used to predict the evolution trend of the warning situation of Huanggang’s arable land resource security from 2021 to 2025.The result shows:(1)From the perspective of time changes: From 2006 to 2020,the human-land relationship subsystem showed a fluctuating trend,and the police degree experienced the change process of "medium police-heavy police-giant police-heavy police-medium police-light police";The sub-system of cultivated land quantity shows a gradual downward trend,and the warning degree gradually drops from "large warning" to "medium warning";the cultivated land benefit subsystem decreases slowly in the fluctuation,and the warning degree fluctuates from "serious warning" to "medium warning";The sub-system of cultivated land input shows a fluctuating and slow downward trend,and the police degree has gone through the change process of "giant police-serious police-giant police-heavy police-medium police".In general,the alarm situation of cultivated land resources in Huanggang City has shown a fluctuating downward trend,the level characteristic value has dropped from 3.96 in 2006 to 2.85 in2020,and the alarm situation has eased from "serious alarm" to "moderate alarm".The overall situation of cultivated land resource security Improved.(2)From the perspective of spatial changes: During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period,Tuanfeng County changed from "giant police" to "serious police",and Huangzhou District,Macheng City,Yingshan County,Qichun County,and Huangmei County maintained the status of "serious police force".The "serious police" remain unchanged.Hong’an County has gone through the process of "medium police-heavy police-medium police",Luotian County has changed from "serious police" to "medium police",and Xishui County and Wuxue City have changed from "medium police" to "medium police".During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period,Hong’an County experienced a fluctuating process of "medium police-heavy police-medium police",Huangzhou District,Macheng City,Yingshan County,Wuxue City,Huangmei County was downgraded from "serious police" to "medium police",Tuanfeng County was downgraded from "giant police" to "serious police",Qichun County was downgraded from "giant police" to "medium police",Luotian County and Xishui During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period,Tuanfeng County has been in the state of "serious police",Huangzhou District and Hong’an County have changed from "medium police" to "serious police",and the remaining counties(city,District),the “Central Police” remains unchanged.(3)Analysis of obstacle factors: From 2006 to 2020,the main obstacle factors restricting the security of cultivated land resources in Huanggang City are the per capita cultivated land area,unit pesticide application amount,population urbanization level,population density,per capita grain possession,and per capita disposable income of farmers,cultivated land reclamation rate and other indicators.The order of influence of each subsystem on the security of cultivated land resources in Huanggang City is:relationship between human and land > benefit of cultivated land > input of cultivated land > quantity of cultivated land.(4)Prediction results: From 2021 to 2025,the overall level characteristic value of cultivated land resource security in Huanggang City will maintain a steady downward trend.The top six major obstacle factors from 2021 to 2025 include per capita grain availability,population urbanization level,unit agricultural labor force,population density,multiple cropping index and unit pesticide application amount.The order of influence on safety is: cultivated land benefit > human-land relationship > cultivated land input >cultivated land quantity;In 2025,there will be 2 arable land resource safety in the counties of Huanggang City in the state of "serious police",6 in the state of "moderate police",and 2 in the state of "light police".In order to improve the security level of cultivated land resources in Huanggang City,this study proposes the following countermeasures and suggestions:(1)transforming medium and low-yield fields to increase grain output;(2)improving the level of agricultural mechanization and promoting the intensive utilization of cultivated land;(3)promoting urbanization construction and improving the level of urbanization of the population;(4)mobilizing farmers Enthusiasm for growing grains and improving the utilization rate of arable land;(5)Reducing the amount of chemical fertilizers and pesticides used to improve the quality of arable land;(6)Controlling the population growth rate and easing the contradiction between man and land.The research results can better reflect the current situation and evolution trend of the security of cultivated land resources in Huanggang City,which is in line with the objective reality of Huanggang City.The research on regional cultivated land resource security early warning provides a new method and idea,and provides a reference for improving the security level of regional cultivated land resources.