| "Jiziwan"section is a key node in the Yellow River Watershed,where is a key area for realizing the rise of the central and western regions,and it is also a strategic support for ecological environmental protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.However,as"Jiziwan"is a key node in the Yellow River Basin,water shortage has become the biggest constraint on the economic and social development of the region.Starting from the production side and consumption side of water resources,this paper analyzes the water consumption,structural changes,inflow and outflow characteristics of entity water and virtual water in 18 cities in the"Jiziwan"section,as well as the change characteristics of water use coefficients in different cities and different departments.We construct the regional water resources evaluation system was established,and explore the driving factors of water consumption changes,and put forward the key points of water saving in the region and suggestions for industrial water supply adjustment.The specific research results are as follows:(1)The virtual water consumption in the"Jiziwan"section increased from 64.85 billion m~3in 2007 to 77.84 billion m~3in 2017,an increase of 20%,but the entity water consumption only changed by-0.04%.The types of virtual water growth in different cities are quite different.The proportion of entity water to virtual water in 18 cities dropped from 41.7%in 2007 to 34.8%in 2017,and the efficiency of water resources utilization has gradually improved;the major water users of entity water are agriculture,and the major users of virtual water are manufacturing,agriculture,and the use of entity and virtual water in the service industry has increased dramatically.The inflow of virtual water in the 18 cities increased significantly,which showed the characteristics of net outflow of virtual water.The virtual water outflow of the manufacturing industry is all over 18.89 billion m~3,and the inflow is less than 10.89 billion m~3.The manufacturing industry has the comparative advantage in the regional economy.(2)The direct water use coefficient in the"Jiziwan"section decreased from 208 m~3/10,000yuan in 2007 to 63.7 m~3/10,000 yuan in 2017,a decrease of-69.4%.The water efficiency of each city has been improved to varying degrees.In 18 cities,the complete water use coefficient decreased from 431.5m~3/10,000 yuan in 2007 to 158.2m~3/10,000 yuan in 2017.There are obvious differences in the proportion of direct water use coefficients in different cities due to the different industrial structure of each city and the different direct water use intensity and intermediate water use intensity of each department.From the perspective of sectors,agriculture has the highest direct water use coefficient and the lowest ratio of complete water use coefficient to direct water use coefficient.It is the sector with the most water saving potential and the lowest economic benefit.There are significant differences in the composition of water use coefficients for mining and manufacturing in different cities,while the composition of water use coefficients for energy supply industries is relatively stable.The direct water use coefficient of the construction industry and the transportation,post and telecommunication industry accounts for a relatively low proportion.The service industry includes multiple sectors with a complex industrial structure,and its direct water consumption is the highest in the tertiary industry.(3)From the perspective of water use structure,the annual average self-sufficiency rate of virtual water in the"Jiziwan"section is 77.4%,which is lower than the national average water resources self-sufficiency rate of 84%.It shows that the urban agglomeration is in a state of water shortage as a whole.The multiplier of water use in the region is decreasing year by year.With the development of commodity trade,the pulling degree of virtual water to entity water is increasing.From the perspective of benefit structure,the population density and land area of virtual water are decreasing by years,indicating that the water consumption on the consumption side per capita is increasing.The contribution of virtual water in the region decreases by years,and the net outflow of virtual water shrinks,which alleviates the pressure on water resources in the region.From the perspective of pressure indicators,the water resources sustainability index in the middle and upper reaches of the"Jiziwan"is greater than 1,and the water resources are in an unsustainable state.Especially in the cities of Ningxia Autonomous Region,the water resources sustainability index is extremely high.Compared with the middle and upper reaches,the water resources sustainability index is less than 1,and the water resources development and utilization degree in the lower reaches are high.(4)According to the forecast,in 2030,the total population of the"Jiziwan"scetion will be52.845 million,and the total GDP will be 5,779.35 billion yuan.The effect of population and economy on water consumption is negatively driven.Among them,cities greatly affected by population factors include Yinchuan,Wuhai,Ordos,Baotou,and Hohhot;Baiyin,Yulin,Yan’an,Weinan are greatly affected by economic factors.It is expected that by 2030,the effect of the population will gradually increase,while the effect of the economy will gradually decrease.The impact of technology effect on water consumption is negatively driven.Lanzhou,Yulin,and Weinan have a relatively low contribution to the technical effect,while Shizuishan,Bayannur,Luliang and Yuncheng have relatively high contribution to the technical effect.It is expected that in 2030,the contribution rate of technological effects will exceed that of economic effects.(5)This paper puts forward water-saving suggestions for key regional cities from the production side and the consumption side of water resources:from the perspective of production,Bayannur,Zhongwei,Wuzhong,Shizuishan and Baiyin have high direct water use coefficients.The average value in the"Jiziwan"section is 63.7m~3/10,000 yuan,which has high water saving potential and is the key target of water saving in the 18 cities in the"Jiziwan"section.The common characteristics of the five cities are that the proportion of agricultural water use is relatively large and the output is relatively low.Five cities are key cities for water conservation,and the improvement of their water resources utilization efficiency has an important impact on the utilization of water resources in the"Jiziwan"section.Agriculture is an important industry and water conservation focus for these cities.Especially for Bayannur,the agricultural water use coefficient is much higher than the average of 18 cities,and its agricultural water use needs to be controlled.The comparative advantages of Baiyin,Wuzhong and Shizuishan are manufacturing,while the comparative advantages of Zhongwei and Bayannur are service industries.Strengthening the water supply of the advantageous industries in the five cities can promote the high-quality development of their economies.From the perspective of virtual consumption,Ordos,Baotou,Shizuishan,and Wuhai made a large amount of virtual water outflow,and the virtual water outflow aggravated the pressure on water resources in the above five cities.For the above five cities,it is necessary to provide water supply to the local advantageous industries,manufacturing and service industries,and improve their comparative advantages.The virtual water in Yulin,Yan’an and Weinan is in the state of inflow,and their advantageous industries are mining,manufacturing and service industries,while the agricultural sector with high water consumption has a small proportion of water use.The virtual water flow pattern of Yulin,Yan’an and Weinan is more conducive to promoting local economic development. |
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