Evaluation Research Of Supply And Demand Spatial Allocation Of Qinhuangdao Pension Service Facilities Under The Background Of Aging Population

The population aging degree of Qinhuangdao is deepening day by day.By 2019,the number of elderly people over 60-year-old in Qinhuangdao has reached 696756,accounting for 23.12% of the city’s total population.Qinhuangdao has entered a moderate aging society.And the issue of elderly care has gradually attracted the attention of society.The state specifically proposes the “9064” pension model,which requires that 4% of the elderly should be aged in pension service facilities,but the current pension service facilities in Qinhuangdao can not meet this requirement.Therefore,actively responding to the aging process and reasonably evaluating the supply and demand space allocation of pension service facilities are of great significance to establishing and improving the construction of the pension service system in Qinhuangdao.Firstly,through the descriptive statistics of the elderly population and pension service facilities in Qinhuangdao,combined with GIS spatial analysis technology,this paper clarifies that there are some problems in the spatial allocation of pension service facilities in Qinhuangdao.Secondly,based on the data of the elderly population over 60 years old in Qinhuangdao from 2010 to 2019,the paper establishes the Logistic population prediction model,GM(1,1)model and the improved Leslie population prediction model.According to the performance of the three models in relative error rate,fitting image and practical application,the paper selects the optimal model and uses this model to obtain dynamic population data with high accuracy.Finally,taking the streets and towns in Qinhuangdao as the research scale,the predicted number of elderly population in 2020 as the demand and the number of beds of existing pension service facilities as the supply,the spatial accessibility results of pension service facilities under two effective service thresholds are obtained by using the2-step floating catchment area method,and the spatial allocation of pension service facilities in Qinhuangdao in 2020 is scientifically evaluated.At the same time,it puts forward strategies and suggestions for optimizing the spatial allocation of pension service facilities in Qinhuangdao.