Research On The Interaction Between High-tech Service Industry Agglomeration And Industrial Structure Upgrading Based On PVAR Model

At present,the industrial development of China is in the critical period of strengthening the weak points and seeking new breakthroughs.The existing development mode of Chinese industries is still facing severe challenges and needs to be changed urgently.The Party’s twenty major reports also regard industrial structure adjustment as an important direction to promote green development.In recent years,with the rapid development of new technologies such as cloud computing,big data,Internet of Things and artificial intelligence,China’s high-tech service industry has developed rapidly,which greatly enables the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.In addition,the demand for high-tech services arising from the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure has also accelerated the agglomeration of high-tech service industries.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the interaction between high-tech service industry agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading to accelerate the construction of high-tech service industry system,accelerate the promotion of industrial transformation and upgrading,and achieve high-quality development.Firstly,this thesis briefly analyzes the status quo and future trend of the development of high-tech service industry in China,and then introduces the measure of agglomeration level and industrial structure optimization level of high-tech service industry.Then,based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2012 to 2021,the agglomeration level and industrial structure optimization level of high-tech service industry in China are empirically-analyzed,and the most important factors affecting the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure are discussed by using Lasso regression model.Finally,panel vector autoregression(PVAR)model is used to perform GMM estimation,Granger causality test,impulse response analysis,variance decomposition and mediation effect analysis,and the interaction effect between high-tech service industry agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading is discussed.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1)the concentration trend of Chinese high-tech service industry is becoming more and more obvious,and the regional agglomeration effect is becoming more and more prominent,but the differences between regions are still large,and the regional imbalance needs to be optimized;(2)The level of rationalization and refinement of industrial structure in all regions has been improved to a certain extent,but there is still a large gap in the level of industrial structure among regions.The industrial structure of some provinces and cities in eastern regions has reached or approached the level of developed countries,while the industrial structure level in central and western regions is still at a low level;(3)Four indexes such as energy supply can improve the rationalization level of industrial structure,while six indexes such as human capital supply can promote the upgrading of industrial structure.(4)There is a two-way interaction between high-tech service industry agglomeration and industrial structure rationalization,while there is only a one-way interaction between high-tech service industry agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading.In addition,the impact of industrial structure rationalization on the agglomeration of high-tech service industry and the impact of the agglomeration of high-tech service industry on the upgrading of industrial structure is positive,but this positive impact gradually weakens with the passage of time.Finally,according to the empirical conclusions,policy suggestions are put forward.