The Choice Of Leading Industry In China Ocean And Analysis Of Economic Effects

The 21 st century is the century of Marine and is the new century that human develop,use,construct and protect Marine on large scales.At present,the world’s coastal countries will ascend to the height of the national development strategy for ocean development,accelerate the pace of march to Marine and promote the development of Marine economy in the world into a new stage.In recent years,the development strategy of marine economy in China has always followed the "Twelfth Five Year Plan",and vigorously promote the optimization and upgrading of Chinese marine industrial structure,so that the marine economy in china could stay in the period of rapid development.But there are still many problems among this rapid development.At present,China’s marine industry is complete,but the leading industry is not clear.Economic development relys on the leading industry’s guidance and leading role,and ocean leading industries should be placed in the position of priority development to form the Marine industry system with leading industry as the core and coordinated development of various industries.Therefore,according to China’s Marine economy development phase,selecting the Marine leading industry correctly and studying it’s economic effect correctly is not only beneficial to the further development of Marine economy,and plays an important role in ocean further optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.On the basis of in-depth study of the theory of leading industry and our marine industry classification,this article constructed the corresponding quantitative index system and used the method of factor analysis to analyze factors.As result,the ocean leading industry in our country at present was:Marine fishery,Marine oil-gas industry,seawater desalination industry,Marine transportation, and coastal tourism.By the analysis of short and long term effects of the leading industry stimulating economic growth in the marine through the cointegration and error correction model,the article found that China’s marine industry leading marine growth stimulating specific effect was dynamic, the long-term and short-term elasticity coefficient of Marine fisheries and coastal tourism were relatively large,and had the biggest effects on the development of Marine economy. The article also found that the re were apparent differences among the long-term and short-term elasticity coefficient of Marine oil-gas industry,seawater desalination industry and Marine transportation.This also told that to some extent,they had obvious lag effect on pulling the marine economic growth.Finally,the article analysed the driving effects the three leading industries had on the Marine industry based on the VAR model and impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis method.Through the study of the result,the article found that there were many differences among the effects the leading industries had on the three industries.In the case of Marine fisheries,Marine fishery had a strong positive effect on the first industry,its long-term impact was greater than the short-term impact and in the long term.And its contribution rate to the fluctuate of the first industry can reach 87.17%, but for the second and third industry, its influence and contribution rate was relatively small.