Study On Total Factor Productivity And Influencing Factors Of County Cotton In Hebei Province

As a traditional cotton-producing province in China,Hebei Province is the main high-quality cotton production base in China,with suitable natural geographical environment.Hebei Province,as an important supplement to Xinjiang cotton,is of great significance to ensure the security of China’s cotton supply.Since 2012,cotton production in Hebei Province has entered the stage of adjustment and transformation,and the cotton field has been transferred from the central and southern Hebei Province with good water and fertilizer conditions to the coastal saline-alkali land,and the cotton planting area has continued to shrink.Although the output per unit area of cotton has increased,the continuous shrinking of cotton planting area will inevitably lead to the continuous decline of total cotton output.Improving cotton production efficiency is the key to promote the prosperity of cotton industry.In order to ensure the sustained and healthy development of cotton industry in Hebei Province,it is particularly necessary to explore how to improve cotton total factor productivity(TFP).This paper combs the related background and theoretical basis of cotton TFP.According to the cotton production-input index,the cotton TFP of 88 cotton-growing counties in Hebei Province from 2012 to 2020 was calculated by DEA-Malmquist index method,and the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of total cotton production efficiency in Hebei Province were analyzed.Secondly,the spatial correlation of cotton TFP between counties is studied by exploratory spatial data analysis.Finally,spatial lag model and spatial Dobbin model are selected to empirically analyze the influence degree and spatial spillover effect of various influencing factors on cotton TFP.According to the research conclusion,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward:encourage the development of cotton planting technology and improve the ability of technological innovation;Adjust the layout of superior cotton areas and coordinate the circulation of regional factors;Adjust the layout of superior cotton areas and coordinate the circulation of regional factors;Improve the technical level of fertilizer control and chemical control,and improve the efficiency of fertilizer use;Provide high-quality agricultural productive services and reduce the circulation cost of factors;Strengthen cotton-related policy support and attach importance to cotton economy.The results show that:(1)The average annual growth rate of cotton TFP in Hebei Province is 0.5%,and technical efficiency is the main factor to promote the improvement of TFP.The common growth of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency promotes the improvement of technical efficiency.However,the lack of technical progress has limited the growth of cotton TFP.(2)Since 2016,the county-level cotton TFP in Hebei Province has shown obvious spatial correlation,obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics and obvious spatial effects.(3)Cotton planting scale,chemical fertilizer input level,mechanized cultivated land level,development level of agricultural producer service industry and industrialized operation rate have a significant negative impact on cotton TFP in Hebei Province,but the improvement of index level has no positive impact on cotton production efficiency.(4)The development level of agricultural producer services and the level of mechanized cultivated land have a significant negative spatial spillover effect on cotton TFP in surrounding counties,while the level of mechanized sowing has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on cotton TFP in surrounding counties.The innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)Taking county units as the research object,the research is more specific,which enriched the research content of county cotton production in Hebei Province;(2)The total factor productivity of cotton was analyzed from the perspective of spatial effect,and the spatial correlation structure was brought into regression to analyze the spatial spillover effect of influencing factors,which expanded the research idea of total factor productivity of cotton.