Research On Investment Decision Of Battery Storage Co-located With Renewable Energy Based On Real Options

With the gradual implementation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,the proportion of renewable energy such as photovoltaics and wind power in the energy structure continues to increase in China.As a flexible resource to improve the regulation capacity of the power system,energy storage is a key technical means to support the access and consumption of a high proportion of renewable energy on the power generation side.The mode of "new energy+energy storage" will become the mainstream of renewable energy development in China.Among them,battery storage which is convenient to install and flexible to use will be the future mainstream development direction of energy storage technology.However,the development of battery storage co-located with renewable energy in China is still facing the problem of the economy.Project revenues are affected by various uncertain factors such as market electricity prices and battery cost,and project risks are difficult to measure.Therefore,scientific quantification of project value and improvement of the accuracy of project investment decisions are the key to promoting the development of battery storage co-located with renewable energy.Based on the real option theory,this paper conducts in-depth research on the investment decision of battery storage co-located with renewable energy to provide decision-making reference for relevant personnel:first of all,the applicability of the real option theory in energy storage project investment decision is systematically analyzed;secondly,uncertain factors such as market electricity prices,carbon prices,and unit investment costs are quantified based on project investment costs and benefits and an investment decision model for battery storage co-located with renewable energy is constructed.Finally,the model is applied to a representative photovoltaic battery storage project and utilizes dynamic programming and least squares Monte Carlo simulation to solve for the optimal investment value and investment timing.The research results show that:(1)The willingness to invest in battery storage co-located with renewable energy is strongly affected by factors such as feed-in tariff,ancillary service revenue,and battery cost.The advancement of battery storage technology and the construction of an electricity market mechanism are the impetus for the healthy and sustainable development of the industry;(2)At present,battery storage projects co-located with renewable energy have low value,and policy means should be used to promote energy storage development.The mandatory storage allocation policy effectively promotes investment in battery storage at this stage;(3)Investment in photovoltaic battery storage projects in 2029 can achieve optimal value.