Study On The Spatial And Temporal Matching Pattern Of Regional Agricultural Water-land-population Resources

Population,land and water resources are the three most basic resource elements of agricultural production,but there is no research on the multiple spatial and temporal matching among them at home and abroad.The spatial and temporal matching pattern of the three factors will have an important impact on food production.Ignoring this factor may lead to the deviation of the agricultural development policy and endanger the national food security.In view of this,this paper establishes a multi temporal and spatial matching evaluation model of agricultural population,agricultural land and water resources.The spatial and temporal matching pattern of three elements is analyzed.The results show that there is a significant correlation between the spatialtemporal pattern of resources,soil carbon storage and grain yield in most regions of China.It provides the most important reference for strengthening the management of water and soil resources and improving the level of grain production.The main research contents and achievements are as follows(1)The distribution of agricultural production factor resources in China is greatly affected by geographical factors.The matching coefficient of water resources and agricultural land presents the pattern of South small and north big,and the northeast region is close to three times of South China.However,the matching coefficients of water resources agricultural population and water resources agricultural land show the opposite pattern,which is 3-5 times higher in the South than in the north.The southern region is rich in agricultural population and water resources,while the northern region is more abundant in cultivated land resources,and the spatial distribution of agricultural production factors is seriously misplaced.(2)The matching degree between agricultural land and agricultural population is high,more than 70% of the areas reach the absolute matching level,and the matching degree rises slowly in the study period.The matching degree of water resources agricultural population,water resources agricultural land and agricultural population agricultural land water resources is relatively low,and only less than 10% of the areas reach the absolute matching level.(3)A multiple impact response model of agricultural production factors,soil carbon storage and grain production was established,and the parameters of the model were preliminarily determined.The results show that the resource matching degree of agricultural production factors has a significant impact on Grain Yield and soil carbon storage,and there is a significant linear correlation between soil carbon storage and grain yield.(4)There is a significant positive correlation between resource matching degree and grain yield in Northeast and North China,indicating that the balanced distribution of multi factor resources in this region has a great impact on grain production.However,in recent years,the growth rate of grain production in this region has decreased,so we should appropriately develop and formulate reasonable fallow policies.There is a significant positive correlation between resource matching degree and grain yield in Northwest China,but the agricultural development in this area is mainly restricted by the lack of water resources.We should vigorously develop water-saving agriculture and strengthen water resources management.There is little correlation between resource matching degree and grain yield in East and central China,South China and southwest China,and the impact of resource allocation on grain yield is limited.