| Water resources,ecological environment and food are the necessary conditions for human survival,and are also important factors affecting the sustainable development of economy and society.Especially under the constraints of less precipitation and fragile ecological environment in northwest China,the competitive utilization of water resources by crop growth and ecological environment is increasing year by year.It is urgent to carry out the research on the optimal allocation of water resources in arid areas based on the link between water,crop and ecology.In this paper,Changji National Agricultural High-tech Industry Demonstration Zone in Xinjiang is selected as the research area.Based on the in-depth excavation of the current water resources conditions and other relevant data in agricultural areas,the supply and demand of water resources in agricultural areas in 2024 are predicted and analyzed,and the correlation analysis method is used to explore the water-crop-ecology link relationship(WCE)in agricultural areas.Based on the water supply and demand prediction and WCE analysis results,a water resources allocation model based on WCE bond relationship is constructed,and the water resources allocation scheme set is solved.On this basis,the drought stress parameters are introduced into the model to establish the optimal allocation model of arid areas.By constructing the evaluation index system of water resource allocation scheme,the combination evaluation method is used to evaluate the water resource allocation scheme set.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The water supply and demand of the study area in 2024 were predicted and analyzed by quota method and trend method.In 2024,the total water demand in agricultural areas was 3557.01 million m~3,the available water supply was 3337 million m~3,and the water shortage was 220.01 million m~3.(2)Based on remote sensing image data,the relationship between water-crop-ecology(WCE)in agricultural areas was analyzed.The results showed that the proportion of farmland area in agricultural areas was the largest,but it showed a decreasing trend year by year,while the proportion of grassland and woodland increased year by year.There is a positive correlation between crop planting area and agricultural water consumption,but the spatial matching between crop planting and groundwater resources is poor.There is a benign competition game relationship among crops,ecology and industry for water resources.(3)Taking the maximization of economic,social and ecological benefits as the objective function,a water resources allocation model based on WCE bond relationship is constructed,and the benchmark scheme and water resources allocation scheme set are obtained by solving the model.By introducing drought stress parameters into the model,the optimal allocation model of arid area is established to study the cooperative optimal allocation of water resources in crops and ecological environment in agricultural areas under simulated drought scenarios.(4)By constructing the evaluation index system of water resource allocation scheme,five single evaluation methods,namely,grey correlation method,CRITIC weight method,TOPSIS evaluation method,principal component analysis method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and three combination evaluation methods,namely,average value,fuzzy Borda and maximum deviation,are used to evaluate the water resource allocation scheme set.Through analysis,in the solution of water resources optimal allocation model,the comprehensive benefit of scheme 8 is the best,which is291326 million yuan.The quadratic combination evaluation results show that the third scheme is the optimal one.Under this scheme,the water distribution of crops,ecology and industry is 1357.5 million m~3,1326 million m~3 and 429.27 million m~3,respectively. |
