| In recent years,with the continuous increase of greenhouse gas emissions,the global climate is also constantly changing.The intensity and frequency of rainfall events are also changing due to climate change,such as more frequent extreme rainfall events.Among the many factors that induce landslides,rainfall infiltration is one of the main factors.This means that climate change may have an impact on rainfall-induced landslide activity.Combining extreme rainfall changes caused by climate change into the analysis and assessment of landslide hazards can more accurately predict and prevent landslides induced by rainfall infiltration,especially for the safety of engineering slopes that are in service.Assurance is important.In view of this,this paper combines the extreme rainfall changes caused by climate change with the regional landslide risk analysis model,and based on the regional and local geographic information and hydraulic parameters of a highway in Xinjiang,the risk of extreme rainfall-induced regional landslides considering global climate change is carried out.analyze.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Based on multiple global climate models,the future daily rainfall data of the target study area under different climate backgrounds were obtained.After preprocessing,high-resolution local rainfall was obtained through the Bias correction and spatial downscaling(BCSD)method.data to build regression models of extreme rainfall events under climate change.(2)For an area along a highway in Xinjiang,the intensity-frequencyduration(Intensity-frequency-duration)of daily precipitation extreme events under the future climate background(2060-2090)considering global climate change was established based on Extreme Value Analysis.-Duration-Frequency,IDF)curve.The differences between the IDF curves underscore the important impact of differences in greenhouse gas emissions in the climatic context on the recurrence probability and intensity of rainfall events.(3)Based on the hourly rainfall history of the study area,the extreme rainfall events in the daily rainfall IDF curve were further decomposed randomly on the time scale by the Bounded random cascade model(BRCM).The influence of rainfall patterns on the evolution process of landslide triggering is further considered.(4)Based on the one-dimensional seepage control equation and the infinite slope model considering the effect of suction,a finite element model for the analysis of seepage and stability of unsaturated slopes under the action of rainfall infiltration was constructed.The validity of the finite element model is verified by comparison with the analytical solutions of pore water pressure under different conditions.The finite element model is extended to a large scale area by means of vectorized programming techniques.Post-processing by Geographic Information System(GIS)realizes the visualization of finite element simulation results in geographic space.(5)Based on the established extreme rainfall regression model and the regional-scale rainfall infiltration slope stability analysis finite element model,with the historical landslide along the S316 provincial highway in Xinjiang as the engineering background,different climatic backgrounds and different rainfall recurrences were carried out.Probabilistic,regional landslide risk analysis under different random rainfall patterns.Based on the simulation results,the important effects of climate background,extreme rainfall return period and random rainfall pattern on the evolution of landslide triggering were discussed under different greenhouse gas emissions. |
