Development Law And Susceptibility Assessment Of Geological Hazards In The Guxiang-Tongmai Section Of The Parlung Zangbo River Basi

The Tibet Autonomous Region,situated in the heart of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,is prone to frequent geological disasters in China.These disasters are characterized by their extensive distribution,powerful destructive force,significant losses,and challenging predictability,posing a significant hindrance to the region’s sustainable socio-economic development.The focus of this study is the Palong-Zangbu River basin,located in Bomi County,Linzhi City,southeastern Tibet.This area lies on the edge of a plate tectonic zone,featuring a complex geological background,fractured rock formations,and extensive development of glaciers.The substantial amount of glacier meltwater and rainfall during the summer,coupled with recent diversion and expansion of National Highway 318,create a favorable environment for geological disasters in the research area.These geological hazards pose a significant threat to transportation,as well as the safety and property of residents along the route.By conducting a comprehensive study and investigation of geological hazards in the area,scientifically planning hazard-prone zones,and promptly implementing geological disaster prevention and control projects,the risk of loss of life and property can be reduced.The study primarily focuses on the downstream section of the Palong-Zangbu River basin,specifically from Guxiang to Tongmai,in southeastern Tibet.By collecting and analyzing existing geological hazard data in the research area and considering the regional geological environmental background,the study aims to clarify the conditions,development characteristics,and distribution patterns of geological hazards through remote sensing interpretation and field investigations.To evaluate geological hazard proneness,the study selected eight evaluation indicators and employed three evaluation models that influence geological hazards in the research area.Using the ArcGIS software platform,geological hazard proneness evaluations were conducted,and the results were categorized into five proneness regions.Finally,the accuracy of the three models was tested using the ROC curve in SPSS,and the model with the highest accuracy was selected for zoning geological hazard proneness in the research area.The main achievements of the study are as follows:1.The study identified the geological hazard-prone environment and analyzed the influencing factors,development characteristics,and distribution rules of geological hazards in the downstream Guxiang to Tongmai section of the Palong-Zangbu River basin in southeastern Tibet.This was achieved through the collection of geological data,remote sensing interpretation,and field investigations.An evaluation index system for geological hazard proneness was constructed,consisting of eight factors that affect the development of geological hazards in the research area.2.Three evaluation models,namely the information quantity model,analytic hierarchy process(AHP)-information quantity model,and random forest-information quantity model,were utilized to evaluate geological hazard proneness in the research area using the ArcGIS software platform.The results of these models were compared using SPSS software,and their accuracy was verified using the ROC curve and AUC value.The model with higher accuracy was selected for zoning geological hazard proneness.3.The AUC values of the three models were compared using the ROC curve,yielding AUC values of 0.702 for the information quantity model,0.793 for the AHP-information quantity model,and 0.89 for the random forest-information quantity model.All three models exhibited high accuracy for geological hazard proneness evaluation,with the random forest-information quantity model being the most accurate.4.The evaluation models resulted in the identification of relatively high and very high proneness areas along National Highway 318 and the river system distribution in the research area.