Risk Assessment Of Geological Hazards Based On Information Quantity Method And Coupling Model

The main types of geological hazards in Guangxi are collapses,landslides,debris flows,and ground subsidence,with the possibility of geological hazards occurring throughout the region,with emphasis on the northeast,southeast,and northwest regions.Due to the influence of geological environmental conditions,extreme weather,climate change,earthquakes,and human engineering activities,Xincheng County faces difficulties in identifying,monitoring,and controlling geological hazards.Therefore,it has become a key concern for local governments and scientific research to carry out a scientific,reasonable,rapid,and effective risk assessment of the county,identify the causative factors,and study the causative mechanisms.This study takes the geological hazard risk assessment of Xincheng County as the research focus.Based on a thorough analysis of the regional geological environmental conditions,the development and distribution characteristics of geological hazards,and the causative mechanisms of geological hazards,this study first uses the information quantity model(IV)and the coupling of two models,the logistic regression model(LR)and the BP neural network(BP),to accurately determine the information quantity of each causative factor to conduct geological hazard susceptibility evaluation,and selects a suitable evaluation model for this region based on precision comparison.Then,combined with the regional socio-economic development characteristics and risk assessment standards,the analytic hierarchy process is used to evaluate the geological hazard vulnerability.Based on the susceptibility and vulnerability evaluation results,a geological hazard risk assessment is conducted for Xincheng County,and countermeasures are proposed.Through this study,it is found that:1.Based on the summary of the types and distribution of geological hazards that have occurred in the study area,an evaluation system was established by extracting evaluation factors and establishing an evaluation system based on the destabilization mode and influencing factors,and the evaluation model based on the IV-BP method was found to have higher prediction accuracy through comparative analysis.The areas of extremely low,low,medium,high,and extremely high geological hazard susceptibility levels accounted for 32.3%,7.55%,14.71%,11.35%,and 34.09%of the total area,respectively.The 16,4,10,23,and 106 geological hazard points that have occurred are included in the five susceptibility levels,respectively.The high and extremely high susceptibility areas of geological hazards in the study area are mainly distributed in the areas with more concentrated human production and living activities,such as the hinterland of residential areas and along highways.2.This study focuses on the risk assessment of geological hazards in the research area.Based on the vulnerability and susceptibility assessment,the results of the risk assessment indicate that the high-to-very high risk areas of geological hazards are mainly distributed in Chengguan Town,Datang Town,Gupeng Town,Beigeng Township,and Masixiang Township,as well as along the highways,covering an area of 1,280 km~2,accounting for 50.36%of the total area of the research area.The main objects at risk are the national highways G242 and G209,as well as the villages and towns along the roads and cultivated land.It is recommended to strengthen the prevention and mitigation of geological hazards in this area.The research results of this paper can provide a reference basis for the local government’s geological hazard prevention and decision-making,and have strong practical value.Additionally,this study is an attempt to apply new technologies to geological hazard prevention and mitigation,which can enhance the level of information and digital technology for disaster prevention and mitigation and provide a new approach for similar scientific research,with significant social significance.