Research On The Application Of NAV Model In The Pricing Of REITs In Warehouse Logistics Reits Based On Monte Carlo Simulation

Since 2020,various ministries and commissions of the state have issued a number of policies to clearly require the promotion of the development of REITs,effectively revitalize existing assets,and form a virtuous circle of existing assets and new investment,indicating that REITs have been used as an important means for the country to achieve investment efficiency improvement and growth.With the support and encouragement of national policies,the REIT market will become a "blue ocean" in the field of asset allocation.For the underlying assets of REITs,due to the high rental rate,strong stability,strong resistance to economic fluctuations and mature fund-based operation mode of mature warehousing and logistics infrastructure,such assets are highly compatible with REITs.According to estimates,China’s warehouse logistics REITs have a wide space,and domestic and foreign experience shows that warehouse logistics REITs perform well,so this paper chooses to study warehouse logistics REITs.In the process of REITs issuance,their valuation results have a very important impact on investors,issuers and managers,and the rationality of valuation results is the prerequisite for ensuring the steady development of REITs after issuance.In view of the fact that China’s REITs have just started,the domestic research on the product is not perfect,especially the lack of pricing research,and there are few studies on the pricing of warehouse logistics REITs,so this study helps to fill the research gap in this area in China.In addition,in practice,China has not formed a unified method and standard for the valuation rules at the REIT level and the selection of valuation parameters at the asset level,so it is of great practical significance to study the products of China’s warehouse logistics REITs,provide suggestions for the valuation and pricing of the warehouse logistics REITs market,and provide investors with a value basis.Since REITs use infrastructure as the underlying asset,the NAV model can better reflect their value before issuance,and the Monte Carlo simulation method can quantify uncertainty parameters and improve the valuation accuracy,so this paper innovatively combines the NAV model and the Monte Carlo simulation method to value warehouse logistics REITs.In terms of the valuation of underlying assets,after analyzing the development status and profit model of the warehousing and logistics industry and comparing various real estate valuation methods,this paper decides to use the return capitalization method(holding and resale model)to value the warehousing and logistics assets.After determining the valuation model and method,this paper takes CICC GLP REIT as an example,first introduces its basic elements,transaction structure and underlying assets,and then analyzes the parameters affecting the valuation index and makes prediction assumptions based on the data disclosed in the offering memorandum and relevant research reports.On the basis of assumptions,this paper uses the Monte Carlo simulation method to simulate the rental growth rate and occupancy rate of uncertain factors for 10,000 times,and substitutes the simulated mean into the formula to find the relevant valuation indicators,and then according to the NAV model,the valuation of CICC GLP REIT is 6.136 billion yuan,because the total fund share is 1.5 billion,so the price of each fund is 4.09 yuan.After comparing the valuation results with the actual net cash flow distribution ratio,fund inquiry,actual amount raised by the fund and the performance of the fund after listing,this paper finds that the introduction of Monte Carlo simulation method can improve the objectivity of valuation,the combination of Monte Carlo simulation method and NAV model can improve the accuracy of valuation,and the issuance of REITs can help preserve and increase the value of state-owned assets.Based on the above conclusions,this paper argues that under the Monte Carlo simulation method,the NAV model has certain rationality for the valuation of warehouse REITs,and can be further applied to the asset evaluation of warehouse logistics REITs,so as to provide reference for the pricing of warehouse logistics REITs in China.Finally,based on the conclusions of the comparative analysis and the problems encountered in the research process,this paper puts forward five suggestions: to continuously improve the information disclosure system of REIT products,pay attention to the mutual price discovery role between asset block transactions and REIT markets,improve the valuation details and promote the innovation of valuation methods,establish the industry database of the underlying assets,and strengthen the education of REIT investors.