Reliability Analysis Of Electricity-gas Interconnection Systems Based On Performance Sharing And Performance Substitution

With the progress of science and technology and the development of society,the function of modern industrial system is increasingly perfect,and the system is becoming more complex.The possibility of failure of a complex system is greater,and the difficulty of maintenance is higher.Therefore,the reliability analysis of complex systems is very challenging.The failure of complex system will cause economic loss,reputation damage,and even human casualties.Therefore,for some rare complex systems in real life,it is important to evaluate their reliability efficiently and accurately.The reliability theory can evaluate the system quantitatively,so as to find out the cause of the system reliability decline,and provide the basis for further improving the system reliability.Through the analysis of system reliability,it can guide managers to choose the design scheme and operation mode,so as to promote the more efficient implementation of the project.At present,most industrial systems are multi-state systems.In order to improve the reliability of the system,scholars have done a lot of research in the field of reliability.However,existing studies on the reliability of multi-state systems often only consider single-energy systems,and only a few literatures consider multi-energy systems.However,in these studies,differences in subsystem weights are not considered and it is assumed that the system will fail when there is insufficient performance.But in real life,each subsystem may not have the same degree of importance and allow the system to have a certain degree of deficiency.Therefore,this paper takes a multi-energy system composed of subsystems with different weights as an entry point,and considers a multi-state system composed of multiple subsystems that requires both electricity and gas.There are performance sharing and performance substitution mechanisms in the power-gas interconnection multi-state system studied in this paper.For practical significance,different weights are assigned to each subsystem and a certain degree of insufficient performance is assumed to exist in the system.In this paper,the reliability model of the system is described and analyzed under three conditions:electricity-gas substitution,gas-electricity substitution and mutual substitution.Secondly,the system reliability of these three cases is deduced by using the general generating function.Then,an example of power-gas interconnection system is introduced to calculate the reliability of the system under these three conditions.Finally,the sensitivity analysis of parameters in the model is carried out,and the influence of substitution rate、 reliability threshold and the weight of subsystem on system reliability is discussed.The conclusions of this paper are as follows: In general,system reliability increases with the increase of electric and gas reliability threshold,electric-gas replacement rate and gas-electric replacement rate,and decreases with the increase of the weight of each subsystem.Managers can directly apply this model to calculate and analyze the reliability of power-gas interconnection systems with performance sharing and performance substitution.