Research On The Development Level Measurement And Growth Momentum Of China’s Economic Dual Circulation

In recent years,due to major events such as the escalation of China-Us economic and trade friction and the global spread of COVID-19,China’s social and economic development has become increasingly complex and is facing more uncertainties in both domestic and international economic circulations.In October 2020,General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed for the first time to build a "new development pattern of mutual promotion at home and abroad",setting a new direction for China’s economic development.In this context,measuring the development level of domestic and international circulation of Chinese economy and analyzing the changes in the growth momentum of Chinese economy are conducive to revealing the development mechanism of domestic and international dual circulation of China’s economy,accelerating the establishment of a new development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international dual circulation,and promoting the high-quality development of China’s economy.Therefore,based on the input-output model,this paper reflects the development level of Chinese economy participating in domestic and international circulation by the degree of dependency,and breaks down the driving force of China’s economic growth,interpreting the essential characteristics of the new development pattern.The specific work contents are as follows: First,introduction to models and measurement methods.This paper introduces the structure of the world input-output table and the world input-output model,puts forward a method to measure the dependency index—the GDP disassembly of domestic and international dual circulation based on the global value chain,and introduces the disassembling method of economic growth impetus.Second,analysis on the measuring results of dual circulation development level of Chinese economy.This paper presents the results of disassembly of Chinese GDP from domestic and international perspective,and quantitatively analyzes the relative degree of Chinese economy’s participation in domestic and international circulation from the perspective of China as a whole,different final demands and different economies through the degree of dependency.Third,analysis of the disassembly results of economic growth momentum.This paper analyzes the disassembly results of economic growth momentum of China and other major economies from the horizontal and vertical perspectives,mainly including the effect of change in added value,the effect of change in input-output structure(domestic multiplier change effect,feedback effect,spillover effect),and the effect of change in final demand(consumption demand change effect,investment demand change effect).The findings are as follows:(1)China’s economic dependence presents a U-shaped structure on internal circulation.China’s economic growth mainly depends on domestic circulation,but the domestic dependence is still low compared with the United States and Japan,and there is still large room for improvement in the dominant position of domestic circulation.(2)From the perspective of different final demands,the final demand structure of Chinese economy in the international circulation is basically stable.The dependency of domestic investment has a sustainedly growing trend,while the dependency of domestic consumption decreases first and then rises.(3)From the perspective of international comparison of the dependence of major economies,since 2015,China’s domestic circular dependence has ranked the third among major economies,basically at the same level as Japan and BRICS countries.China has initially formed a development pattern of domestic circulation as the main body.(4)From the perspective of economic growth momentum,only China’s value-added change effect is positive,which mainly depends on China’s tertiary industry;The number of domestic intermediate products that China relies on for each unit of final product produced shows an upward trend,which is related to the increase of intermediate input coefficient of China’s primary and tertiary industries.Major economies import intermediate goods from other countries,which brings a positive pulling effect on their own economies.Relying on the export of intermediate products to drive domestic economic growth has a moderate effect for developed countries,but a significant effect for emerging countries such as China.China’s economic growth is more dependent on investment than developed countries,while there is still much room for growth in dependence on consumption.Consumption and investment are still the main driving force for China’s economic growth.According to the research conclusions,the following suggestions are put forward:(1)Actively expand consumption to adjust domestic demand and promote supply-side structural reform.(2)Accelerate independent innovation and upgrade the industrial structure.(3)Promote high-quality opening up and accelerate the process of building a new development pattern.