| The key factor required for the growth of high-quality tobacco in Yunnan Province is the meteorological factors from April to September.During this period,climate resource analysis and climate suitability evaluation methods have influenced the rational layout and sustainable development of the tobacco industry.The paper combines the observation data of tobacco growth and development,yield,and basic meteorological stations in Yunnan Province,uses European Center reanalysis ERA5 data,uses ArcGIS technology and Python spatial analysis to interpolate grid data within Yunnan Province,integrates spatial and temporal data,and uses grid data after machine learning quality inspection to study the trend of tobacco climate resources and climate production potential in Yunnan Province.Using the combination of AHP analysis and Vikor method for evaluation and decision-making,the spatiotemporal characteristics of climate suitability during the tobacco growing season in Yunnan Province in the past 40 years were analyzed,and the relationship between tobacco yield and climate suitability was simulated using a model.Further exploration of the climate resource advantages suitable for tobacco cultivation in Yunnan Province will be beneficial for promoting the regional layout of tobacco cultivation.The main results of the paper are as follows:(1)Yunnan Province experienced an increase in thermal resources from 1980 to 2022,with significant regional differences in precipitation resources.By reanalyzing the meteorological grid data ERA5 Land and combining with encrypted ground meteorological observation data from Yunnan Province,machine learning methods were used to correct the meteorological grid data,and ERA5 data with different forecast durations were tested.Machine learning can improve the quality of reanalysis data by correcting it.The corrected root mean square errors of temperature and precipitation have decreased from 3.3 and 2.7 to 2.7 and 1.7,respectively.The spatiotemporal characteristics of climate resources during tobacco growth were analyzed by spatializing meteorological elements with a spatial resolution of 4.5 km * 4.5 km.The climate production potential in central and southwestern Yunnan,with abundant water and heat,high altitude,and low latitude,is higher than 2000 kg · hm-2 · a-1.The production potential of temperature increases the fastest in the central region,at 0.59 kg · hm-2 · a-1;The precipitation production potential has decreased the fastest in the Northeast region,at-1.68 kg · hm-2 · a-1.(2)The key climate suitability indicators for the tobacco growing season in Yunnan Province have been determined.The selected evaluation indicators for tobacco growing season division,namely Sunshine duration and precipitation in April September,and the average temperature in July August are suitable,which are the key to the formation of high-quality tobacco.The research is based on the AHP method,Vikor method,and AHP-Vikor method,using information entropy theory and using code to objectively calculate the climate suitability distribution,and obtaining the best solution through consistency testing.Yunnan Province can be divided into three climatic suitability zones for tobacco.Areas with high climatic suitability include Yuxi City,Chuxiong,Honghe and other warm tobacco planting areas in central and southern Yunnan,with an average CFI of 0.57;The sub suitable areas include Kunming,Qujing,Baoshan,Zhaotong and other high-altitude tobacco planting areas in eastern Yunnan,with an average CFI of 0.53;Areas with low tobacco climate suitability include Lijiang City,Pu’er City,Xishuangbanna and Nujiang Prefecture,with an average CFI of about 0.37.The trend of tobacco climate suitability change in the past 40 years is not obvious.(3)Combined with Python/GIS software to analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of tobacco yield,the relationship between climate suitability and tobacco yield was established by using statistical methods.Regions with higher climate suitability correspond to higher actual tobacco production.The analysis and confirmation of the evaluation study with years of tobacco yield and total production data indicate that the measured tobacco yield at the sample site is exponentially related to the climate suitability value.Using the tobacco characteristic analysis data provided by Yuxi Hongta and verifying it based on tobacco yield and quality data,it is suitable for classification and prediction evaluation of tobacco climate. |
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