Research On Evaluation Of Physical Protection System Based On System Dynamics

China has been aggressively improving a three-dimensional social security prevention and control system in recent years.The physical protection system is the key to construction.Significant improvements in investigation and counterterrorism have been made.Some problems leading to security vulnerabilities are exposed.For example,system construction and operation are not integrated and consistent.The relationship between system input and efficiency output is insufficiently considered.Therefore,to realize efficient,stable,and sustainable protection,an objective and systematic theory of physical protection system evaluation needs to be proposed.Security inputs should be properly utilized.The system dynamics method can be used to study the dependence among the internal factors of the system as a whole.It is introduced for evaluation of physical protection system.The evaluation elements are expanded from the perspective of safety input and output effectiveness.A dynamic evaluation model for the physical protection system is built with protection effectiveness,deterrence effectiveness,detection effectiveness,and containment effectiveness.The main research is:The first is based on the components and efficient mechanism of physical protection system.Through the systematic literature review method and fault tree analysis method,factors affecting protection,deterrence,detection,and containment are studied.The evaluation factors framework including security inputs,functional systems,and evaluation results is established.The functional systems contain 47 basic security factors,and the evaluation results contain 4kinds of effectiveness.The reliable and professional framework provides a theoretical basis for building the evaluation model.The second is based on the evaluation factors framework of physical protection system.Around different evaluation results,the dynamic relations in the system are studied.The model includes 26 effectiveness evaluation variables.The dynamic flow relationship and influence degree between 4 functional subsystems and 4 kinds of effects and their variables in the model are determined.Feedback and functional relationships of the whole system are analyzed.The whole dynamic evaluation model for the physical protection system is constructed.And the integrity,feasibility,and tendency of the model are tested.The third is based on the dynamic evaluation model for the physical protection system.Through an entire system simulation experiment,a subsystem operation rate simulation experiment,and an input plan optimization simulation experiment,the characteristics,problems,and reasons for system effectiveness changing with safety input are studied respectively.The best security investment scheme is obtained from 286 schemes by customizing the optimal selection strategies.Through the first experiment,it is found that the limitation is due to the limited room for advancement and low cost-effectiveness of technologies.And it is also found that the difference is related to safety inputs and dependence on specific elements.Tt is discovered through the second experiment that the personnel protection subsystem and the physical protection subsystem have a significant impact.The ideal mix of people,materials,technology,and management is discovered by the third optimization,with the ratios being 0.6,0.3,0,and 0.1.The outcome is superior to the original one and accurate to the situation,with some feasibility and reliability.The research findings can help the physical protection system obtain an investment scheme to meet the development.It also contributes to the sustained development of system effectiveness in operation and maintenance.The evaluation method is useful in practice.