Study On Comprehensive Evaluation Method Of Risk Factors Of Marine Riser

Marine risers are important structures in offshore oil and gas exploitation.With the increasing depth of offshore oil and gas exploitation,the safe operation of marine risers faces many challenges.Therefore,this paper proposes a comprehensive evaluation system for the risk factors of marine risers,and carries out safety evaluation on the risk factors of marine risers based on expert experience in order to provide guidance for marine riser operation management personnel to control key risks.The main research contents are as follows:Firstly,aiming at the problem of insufficient statistical data in marine riser failure probability analysis,a quantitative risk probability calculation method based on fuzzy fault tree was established.Based on the fuzzy theory and anti-fuzzy theory and considering the subjective and objective weight of experts,the quantitative probability calculation of riser risk factors is carried out.Secondly,an improved network analysis process is proposed to evaluate the severity of consequences of marine riser risk factors.The traditional network analysis method was improved,and the network hierarchy structure of marine riser risk factors was established to calculate the relative severity of the consequences of each risk factor.Then,cloud model theory is used to evaluate the detection index of management risk factors.Combined with CRITIC and AHP methods to compound weight expert advice,using cloud model to deal with the fuzzy and randomness of expert advice,quantitative evaluation of the detection index value and uncertainty of each risk factor.Finally,using FMEA theory to carry out comprehensive evaluation of riser risk factors.MAIRCA theory was used to evaluate each risk factor by comprehensively considering the calculated occurrence,severity,detection and weight of each index.Then develop risk assessment software to simplify the calculation process.