Research On Influencing Factors And Prediction Of Carbon Emission From Construction Industry In Henan Province

With the acceleration of urbanization process in China,the energy consumption and carbon emissions of the construction industry continue to rise.And the construction industry is considered to have a huge potential for emission reduction.Therefore,in the case of ensuring the level of economic development,how to achieve carbon peaking in the construction industry is particularly important.However,from previous researches,there is no yet a clear and comprehensive understanding of carbon emissions from the construction industry from a provincial perspective.This paper analyzes the influencing factors and predicts the future emission trend of the construction industry carbon emissions in Henan Province,and puts forward feasible emission reduction suggestions.Firstly,this paper constructed a carbon emission measurement model for the construction industry based on the emission factor method,and used it to calculate the carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of the construction industry in Henan Province from 2005 to 2019.Then according to the IPAT model and previous literature,the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the construction industry were identified from the perspective of supply and demand.Then,the grey relational theory was used to calculate the correlation between carbon emissions and various influencing factors.Based on the calculation results,8 influential factors with high correlation were selected from the four dimensions of population,economy,technology and industry.And an extended STIRPAT model was constructed to obtain the elasticity coefficient of each influencing factor on carbon emissions.Finally,the particle swarm algorithm(PSO)was used to optimize the BP neural network,and a PSO-BP prediction model was constructed.Combined with the scenario analysis method,the benchmark scenario,the development emission reduction scenario and the technological breakthrough scenario were designed to predict the carbon emissions of the construction industry in Henan Province from 2020 to 2040.This paper proposed the strategies that can be applied to reduce future carbon emissions in construction industry of Henan Province.The results show that:1)From 2005 to 2019,the total carbon emissions of the construction industry in Henan Province shows a fluctuating upward trend,while the carbon emission intensity shows a slow downward trend.Although the government has achieved some progress,there is still a great potential for reducing emissions.2)The correlation between the 14 identified influencing factors and the carbon emissions of the construction industry is all greater than 0.6,showing a strong correlation,among which the factors with the greatest correlation are the completed area and labor efficiency.Common macro indicators such as per capita GDP and urbanization rate still have a strong contribution rate to the carbon emissions of Henan’s construction industry.At the same time,factors such as labor efficiency and completed area that are easily ignored in previous studies also have a significant impact.Although the elastic coefficient of energy intensity is small,we should pay attention to the rebound effect of energy consumption.3)The BP neural network optimized by particle swarm optimization has a better effect on carbon emission prediction.Under the scenario that the current economic development speed and industry development level are maintained and emission reduction measures remain unchanged,the construction industry in Henan Province cannot reach the carbon emission peak before 2030.The government,market and enterprises should work together to regulate the carbon emission of the construction industry in Henan Province.The results of this study not only enrich the relevant research on carbon emissions of the construction industry from a provincial perspective,but also provide certain theoretical support for the promotion of carbon emission reduction work by the Henan Provincial Government.