Research On Carbon Emission Accounting And Emission Reduction Path Of Fujian Province Based On Input-output-factorial Analysis Model

In the context of the increasingly serious climate warming problem,the reduction of carbon dioxide（CO₂）emissions has become one of the key concerns in various fields at home and abroad.This paper models a CO₂ emissions research framework based on an input-output-factorial analysis to reveal the CO₂ emissions reduction path from the perspective of energy structure,technological progress and industry development for a case of China’s Fujian province,China during 2012 and 2017,and analyze the effectiveness of emission reduction plans,and provide support for decision makers to formulate emission reduction policies.First,this paper calculates the direct and indirect carbon emissions of various industries based on the CO₂ input-output table transformed from the value-based input-output table,which provides conditions for identifying the main body of carbon emission and the traceability of carbon emission sources.Next,cluster analysis is performed on industries from the perspectives of energy intensity,attractiveness and restraint to identify key regional industries in combination with carbon emissions.Then,the two-stage factorial analysis method is used to collect,screen and identify potential carbon emission influencing factors,and establish some carbon emission scenarios based on the identified key influencing factors to analyze the individual and interactive effects of each influencing factor and quantify the effect of emission reduction.In addition,this paper also combines the SBM method in the data envelopment analysis with the input-output model to calculate the marginal carbon emission reduction cost under different carbon emission scenarios,quantify the pressure on the social economy caused by the emission reduction program,and provide decision makers with different perspectives emission reduction plan.The results show that the chemical industry,building materials and other non-metal manufacturing,metal product manufacturing,electricity and hot water production and supply industries are the main industries of carbon emissions in Fujian province.The carbon emissions from raw coal,natural gas and electricity are the common sources of carbon emissions for the above four industries,and other petroleum products and coke are the specific sources of carbon emissions from building materials and other non-metal manufacturing and metal product manufacturing,respectively.In the process of tracing carbon emission sources,energy consumption structure,industry production technology and development tendency are collected as potential carbon emission influencing factors.At the level of industry clustering,the power and hot water production and supply industry has an absolute dominant position,and its development status determines the upper limit of the development of other industries.However,due to the high energy intensity of this industry,if the adjustment of energy structure,the upgrading of production technology and development tendency factors are not considered,measures to ensure energy consumption and increase the price of energy use can be taken in the process of emission reduction.At the factorial analysis level,15 important carbon emission factors（derived from energy consumption,production technology and development tendency of different industries）are extracted and 128 scenarios are established based on this to analyze the effect of emission reduction.Under the combined application of energy structure adjustment and technological upgrading measures in scenario41,the carbon emission intensity of Fujian province will be reduced by 24.5%,reaching the largest reduction.From the perspective of emission reduction cost and emission reduction effect,the emission reduction measures of scenario 115 are the most suitable emission reduction solutions,and the carbon emission intensity,energy intensity,total direct emission and total indirect emission are reduced by 22.3%,7.6%,21.3%and 5.1%,respectively and the CO₂ emission reduction cost per ton is only 182 RMB.The results of this study will provide a scientific basis for policymakers to formulate CO₂ emission reduction policies.