The Decomposition Analysis Of Carbon Dioxide Emission In China And The Emission Reduction Strategy:A CGE Appraisal

Anthropogenic climate change,especially global warming,which is attributed to CO2 emission is one of the major challenges for today's world.It is widely acknowledged that the increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are the consequence of human activities including population growth,technology,political and economic institutions,economic activity,and social development.To alleviate the greenhouse effect,mounting pressure from international communities calls for a series of efforts in reducing global CO2 emissions.The ?Kyoto Protocol? and ?Copenhagen Accord? signaled a worldwide transition to a low-carbon economy.In 2005,China's carbon emissions surpassed the United States for the first time.As one of the major CO2 emitters,Chinese government declared an emission reduction target that the emissions per unit of GDP in 2020 is required to be reduced by 40%-45% with 2005 as the reference year.Against this backdrop,this paper makes a series of studies on the decomposition analysis of carbon dioxide emission in China and the emission reduction strategy.First of all,we analyze the current situation of CO2 emissions in China.The analyses can be devided into three categories,i.e.overall CO2 emissions,CO2 emissions in various provinces and CO2 emissions in various sectors.Secondly,the internal driving factors leading to the growth of carbon emissions in China in recent years are digged.This paper hereby employs structural decomposition analysis to comprehensively explore carbon emissions growth based on input-output data,and investigate the intrinsic reasons for the findings from nine aspects.Thirdly,a computable general equilibrium model(CGE)was established,which aimed at exploring the influence of adjustment of industrial structure,energy structure and energy efficiency improvement.Finally,we set up a dynamic recursive CGE model by embedding environment and dynamic module.We assessed the macroeconomic impacts of the carbon tax and the effects of refunds as a way of offsetting negative impacts in China.To achieve the objectives,we performed a scenario analysis combining different tax rates and different tax refunds.According to the conclusions,some policy implications are proposed to provide the Chinese government with new perspectives on implementing CO2 reduction policies.In a nutshell,the conclusions derived from this paper have a certain theory meaning and reference value for achieving the target of energy-saving and emission-reduction.Moreover,it also can help the Chinese government to establish the overall policy framework of "Economy-Energy-Environment".All these simulation results and analyses of this paper have reference meaning for the Chinese government drawing up the 13 th Five-Year Plan and provide the Chinese government with suggestions of policies implementation in order to alleviate air pollution and cut CO2 emissions.