Debt Risk Prevention Suggestions Of Local State-owned Enterprises In Jiangxi

Since the second half of 2020,there are several debt defaults events of local state-owned enterprise.Debt default events has attracted the attention of the government.State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council issued "About Strengthening Local State-owned Enterprise Debt Risk Control Working Guidance" in March2021.The document required local state-owned assets supervision and administration to carry out the principal responsibility,effectively guard enterprise to resolve the debt risk,The bottom line is that regional and systemic financial risks will not arise.It is urgent to prevent the debt risks of state-owned enterprises.This thesis takes Jiangxi Copper,the largest local state-owned enterprise in Jiangxi Province,as the research object.The possible debt risks of Jiangxi Copper are analyzed from the debt financing scale,methods and term structure of enterprise.We study the debt situation of Jiangxi Copper through horizontal and vertical comparison study of its debt scale,debt maturity structure in the past three years and the debt of various sources at the end of 2020.After analysis,it is found that in recent three years,the short-term debt of Jiangxi Copper accounts for a relatively high proportion,and more than 80% of the debt funds are bank loans.In addition to the analysis of existing debt,this thesis also analyzes the factors that may affect the debt risk of Jiangxi Copper.The factors include economic cycle,industrial policy,interest fluctuation,exchange rate fluctuation and similar enterprises default events.The results of KMV model show that the overall debt risk of Jiangxi Copper is low.KMV model is used to estimate the default probability of 9 listed companies with similar scale of Jiangxi copper in 2020.The result shows that the default probability of Jiangxi copper is in the lower reaches of these enterprises.The default probability of listed local state-owned enterprises in Jiangxi is not high,most of them are below 1%.The default probability of Jiangxi Copper in listed local state-owned enterprises is also low.Debt risk of Jiangxi Copper is not high.But there is room for improvement in the internal debt structure.First,on the basis of diversified financing channels,the proportion of funds in various channels can be adjusted to increase the proportion of direct financing.Second,in terms of debt maturity structure,Jiangxi Copper can increase the proportion of long-term debt to match the investment needs of mining and selection.Third,Jiangxi Copper can strengthen internal management,closely follow the policy guidance.The suggestions for Jiangxi local state-owned enterprises to manage their own debt risk include expanding financing channels,increasing long-term debt,improving management capacity,strengthening debt risk control consciousness and perfecting debt monitoring mechanism.