Spatiotemporal Dynamics And Scenarios Simulation Of Trade-offs And Synergy Between Typical Ecosystem Services

It is of great significance to clarify the trade-off relationship between typical ecosystem services and the possible trade-offs in the future development model,which is of great significance to the urban development and the optimal allocation of ecosystem services in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.Taking Zigui County as the research area,the paper analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics and trade-offs of three ecosystem services,namely water yield,carbon reserves and soil conservation,and simulates land use under natural growth scenario(BAU),ecological protection scenario(EP)and comprehensive development scenario(CD)by using plus model.The paper discusses the ecosystem under the condition of productionpossibility frontier(PPF)The trade-off characteristics between services determine the better development mode.The main results are as fllows:(1)the carbon reserves and soil conservation in ecosystem services in Zigui county increased from 2005 to 2010,and the water yield increased first and then decreased;The ecosystem service of each township shows the trend of overall growth;The ecosystem service volume increases with the transfer of land use types.The spatial distribution of three ecosystem services is mainly affected by forest land distribution,rainfall,topography and other factors.(2)the trade-off relationship between water yield carbon reserves and water yield soil retention is a trade-off relationship,and the trade-off relationship of ecosystem service has a certain time dependence.(3)in the next 10 years,the ecosystem services under the natural development scenario continue the stable development trend from 2005 to 2015;The water yield and soil conservation in ecological protection situation decreased,and carbon reserves increased;Under the comprehensive development scenario,carbon reserves and water yield are increasing,and soil retention is decreasing.(4)compared with other scenarios,the combination value of ecosystem under EP scenario is closer to PPF curve.In this scenario,through the development of bare land to realize urban development,the ecosystem service relationship can be effectively optimized and the coordinated development of the region can be realized.Zigui county should take into account three aspects of ecological security,food security and economic and social development in the future development process,and formulate ecological protection and restoration measures to achieve the coordinated development of ecosystem services.