Research On Early Warning Of Cultivated Land Ecological Security In Hangjiahu Area

As a precious land resource,arable land plays an important role in ensuring farmers’ survival,food security and promoting regional development.With the acceleration of urbanization and the emergence of problems such as overpopulation,the ecological security development of cultivated land is facing more severe challenges.Therefore,the early warning research on ecological security of cultivated land is helpful to avoid excessive destruction of cultivated land in the region and promote the ecological security development of cultivated land in the region.In this thesis,16 indicators are selected from the Hangjiahu area as the research area,and an early warning index system for regional cultivated land ecological security is constructed based on the PSR model.The weight is determined by the entropy method,and the evaluation value is calculated by the comprehensive index method.The ecological security of cultivated land in Hangjiahu area and 14 districts and counties from 2005 to2020 was evaluated.According to the evaluation results,the analysis was carried out from the perspective of time and space,and the factors restricting the development of cultivated land ecological security were explored by combining the obstacle model,and the overall ecological security situation of Hangjiahu area from 2025 was predicted by the ARIMA model,and finally the police countermeasures were proposed.The conclusions are as follows:(1)On the time scale,the cultivated land ecological security evaluation in Hangjiahu region showed an overall upward trend,and the evaluation value increased by 0.1026 in 16 years,showing an improvement trend.In terms of spatial scale,the cultivated land ecological security in most districts and counties in the region will be improved by 2020.The distribution shows that the evaluation value is higher in the northeast,followed by the central region,and lower in southwest and northwest.(2)Through the calculation of the obstacle model,it is found that the top seven indicators restricting the development of the overall ecological security situation in the region in 2020 are: average cultivated land patch area,proportion of primary industry to GDP,land reclamation rate,rural electricity consumption per unit cultivated land area,proportion of effective irrigation area,average annual precipitation,and population density.(3)The forecast value of the overall ecological security of cultivated land in Hangjiahu area increased from 0.4267 in 2021 to 0.4516 in 2025,and the ecological security of cultivated land improved.The evaluation value of the pressure subsystem decreased from 0.0925 in 2021 to 0.0918 in 2025.The state subsystem increased from0.2001 in 2021 to 0.2117 in 2025.Response subsystem evaluation values increased from0.1279 in 2021 to 0.1381 in 2025.(4)For the evaluation of the ecological security of cultivated land in the Hangjiahu area from 2005 to 2020 and the prediction of the subsequent development trend,the police countermeasures are proposed: strengthen the public’s awareness of cultivated land protection,strengthen the cultivated land protection system,integrate broken cultivated land,increase investment in infrastructure construction,encourage mechanized production,promote the construction of high-quality cultivated land,increase farmers’ income,improve rural land utilization rate,and improve cultivated land status monitoring.