Research On Ship Collision Risk In Laotieshan Waterway Based On AIS

Ship collision risk has always been an important content in the field of Marine traffic engineering research.In order to take advantage of shipborne Automatic Identification System(AIS)data,and overcome the limitations of accuracy,short-term identification and traffic characteristics in the application of traffic flow to ship collision risk.Thus,the collision risk in line with the actual sea area can be obtained.Based on the latest research on macroscopic collision risk,this dissertation adopt DensityBased Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise(DBSCAN)to identify ships with collision risk.Then,using Distance to Closest Point of Approach(DCPA),Time to Closest Point of Approach(TCPA)and Ship Domain Overlapping Index(SDOI)as parameters to figure out the collision risk of vessel pairs.Finally,the Shapley value method in game theory was used to obtain the contribution value of the collision risk of related ships to the regional collision risk,and then obtain the macroscopic collision risk.The AIS data of Laotieshan waterway was used as case study and the applicability of the calculation results is verified by sea traffic complexity.The calculation results are proved to be scientific and accurate by comparing with traditional collision risk calculation models.Compared with the traditional research on collision risk,this dissertation has an advantage over real-time and accuracy.Compared with relevant studies,the limitation of incomplete consideration of TCPA was overcome.This dissertation provides data support for the Marine management personnel of Laotieshan waterway,and provides reference for the research on ship collision risk in other sea areas.Results of this dissertation:(1)Adjust the regional ship collision risk identification framework applicable to the open water area,so that it is applicable to the Laotieshan waterway precautionary area,which is a vessel intensive area,and explain the rationality of parameter adjustment from the navigational practice.(2)Considering the complete process of ship encounters,the calculation results are not consistent with navigation practice due to the failure of predecessors to consider TCPA<0,and the macroscopic ship collision risk calculation model is supplemented and improved.