Analysis Of Carbon Peaking And Carbon Neutral Scenarios For The Transport Sector In Shanxi Province

The transport industry is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and is also the largest oil consuming industry in China apart from manufacturing.In recent years,the transport demand and service scale in Shanxi Province has continued to grow,resulting in a continuous increase in energy consumption and CO₂emissions from the transport sector and serious air pollution.Therefore,it is an urgent issue to study the pathway to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the transport sector in Shanxi Province.This thesis takes the transport industry in Shanxi Province as the research object.By constructing a peak and carbon neutral model for the transport sector in Shanxi Province,we forecast the energy consumption and carbon emission status and trend of the transport sector in Shanxi Province from 2020 to 2060.Firstly,the transport sector in Shanxi Province was divided into three major sectors:integrated passenger transport,integrated freight transport and urban transport,and the regression analysis and LEAP model were used to forecast the transport turnover,drivers and urban transport turnover in Shanxi Province in the coming years.Secondly,the LEAP model was used to predict the carbon peak and carbon neutral pathways of the transport sector in Shanxi Province from 2020 to 2060 by combining the scenario analysis method to set up four different scenarios:baseline scenario,development scenario,technology scenario and optimization scenario.The calculation and analysis results show that:（1）in terms of carbon peak projections,the peak years under the four different scenarios are 2025-2033,the peak total energy consumption is 1635.18-2549.62 million tons of standard coal,the peak total CO₂emissions are 4447.13--The optimal scenario is the best path for the transport sector in Shanxi Province to achieve peak carbon emissions.Individual traffic and road freight are the main sectors of CO₂emissions,and gasoline is the fuel with the highest energy consumption under the four different scenarios.（2）In terms of carbon neutral projections,in 2060,the total energy consumption of the transport sector in Shanxi Province ranges from 9155-2373.26 million tonnes of standard coal,with total CO₂emissions ranging from 167.38-6454.48 million tonnes,and the optimised The CO₂emission reduction under the optimised scenario is about98.8%compared to the baseline scenario,which can better achieve the carbon neutrality target.The transport sector in Shanxi Province is the main source of CO₂emissions,with more than 79%of the carbon emissions caused by passenger travel and road freight transport.Under the optimisation scenario,all sub-sectors of urban transport have already been newly energised and the development of electric motor vehicles is being promoted,with electricity becoming the dominant energy fuel.Finally,this paper explores the effective pathways to peak and carbon neutral transport in Shanxi Province from the perspectives of government,enterprises and individuals in light of the predicted results.