A Study On The Low-carbon Development Of Urban Passenger Traffic In Changchun Based On LEAP Model

With the population growing faster and the urban area expands, the passenger transport demand in Changchun city is increasing year by year. Meanwhile, the energy consumption and the carbon dioxide emission caused by the passenger transport is increasing, which needs much more energy supply and emit much more greenhouse gas for Changchun city. In the context of developing low carbon city and economy in China, the passenger transport in Changchun city should evolve to low carbon transport.Based on the analysis of the passenger transport status and the problems arising from the development of low carbon transport, the LEAP model is applied to predict energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission by passenger transports in Changchun city by 2030 under the standard scenario, low carbon scenario I and low carbon scenarioâ…¡. Then, the solutions and measures are proposed for developing low carbon transports in Changchun city through learning the low carbon development experiences around the world and evaluating the performance of development measures.The prediction result of the LEAP shows that both the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission are the least under the low carbon scenarioâ… , compared to the standard scenario, the low carbon scenarioâ…¡has the less energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission. Thus, low carbon development countermeasures under the low carbon scenarioâ… should be prior to be adopted. Since gasoline will be the major energy for the passenger transports in Changchun city, the reduction of gasoline consumption is the trend for low carbon transports development. The energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission by private transports will surpass the public transports while its transport capacity is less, so the amounts of the private transports should be limited. As for the public transports, the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission by cabs take the major proportion, which should be emphatically cut.Based on the analysis of the LEAP model results and the problems arising from the development of low carbon passenger transports in Changchun city, the solutions and measures are proposed for taking priority to develop public transports (except cabs) supplement with private transports and cabs through learning the low carbon development experiences around the world. The low carbon passenger transports development in Changchun city should take superiority to facilitate to walk and cycle, improve the infrastructure promoted public transports travelling and the rail way transportation, increase the proportion of bus with clean energy, and implement preferential policies for bus card and so on. The supplementary measures include the promotion of diesel or electrical cars, usage limitation of cars though increasing the operational and purchasing cost, transformation of the old cab to clean energy cab, reduction of the running of the cab without any passengers, promotion of the development of employee bus though incentives.The scenario analysis model is applied to study the development of low carbon passenger transportation in Changchun city. The low carbon development program is proposed based on the output data of the mode, which provide a feasible research method for the research of the urban low carbon passenger transportation. Besides, this article not only provides low carbon development reference for transportation sector, but also provides low carbon construction experience for other city in China.