Research On The Vulnerability Of Gas Transmission Capability Of Natural Gas Pipeline Network Based On Risk Analysis

With the construction of major pipeline networks and other projects in my country,the natural gas pipeline network has continued to develop in the direction of interconnection.The safe and efficient operation of the pipeline network is the basis for ensuring that the transport capacity of the network meets the needs of economic and social development.In recent years,research on pipeline network security has been carried out at 3 levels,including reliability analysis,risk assessment,and vulnerability analysis,drawing on the security research methods of large critical infrastructures.The two approaches have similarities but also some differences with respect to what type of information they generate about the system and shortcomings.The purpose of this paper is to investigate how risk evaluation methods and vulnerability analysis methods can be combined to identify critical components that affect the performance of pipeline networks,ensure the safety of the pipeline network and provide guidance for the future optimization of it.Firstly,the graph theory is used to construct the pipeline network topology,and the maximum flow algorithm in the network flow theory is introduced to complete the calculation of the transmission capacity of the pipeline network.Secondly,the differences in the importance of pipeline network components obtained by risk analysis and vulnerability methods are compared and analyzed.Furthermore,by analyzing the characteristics of risk analysis and vulnerability methods,an identification method called risk-vulnerability method is proposed.This method combines the probabilistic failure method of risk analysis with the vulnerability analysis method to identify key components of the pipeline network.A formula to calculate the vulnerability of the component is established by integrating the risk value of the component with the importance.This formula is used to rank the criticality of components.In the calculation of the risk value,the EGIG is used to calculate the failure probability of the component with the correction coefficient,and the utility theory is introduced to calculate the severity of the consequences.Finally,taking the Zhejiang pipeline network as an example,the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are verified by comparing the identification results of this method with the identification results of the “system method”.Pipeline network optimization measures are proposed based on the analysis results of key components,which has certain reference value for identifying key components.