Study On The Impact Of The Policy Of Grain For Green On Carbon Emissions Of Planting Industry In Yulin

Planting production is not only an important guarantee to ensure national food security and stabilize farmers’employment and income,but also an important source of carbon emissions.The continuous promotion of the policy of Grain for green has broken the traditional balance of farmers’production and management,changed the resource endowment and constraints of rural households,greatly affected farmers’business behavior,especially production behavior,and further affected the carbon emissions of the planting industry.How to allocate their resources after participating in the policy of Grain for green,and whether they will increase the investment in the planting of the remaining farmland,resulting in greater pollution of the planting industry,which will affect the results of the policy of Grain for green,has become an urgent issue to be studied.Based on the above research issues,this study uses the sustainable agriculture theory,the farmer behavior theory and the low-carbon agricultural economic theory,takes Yulin City,Shaanxi Province as the research area,selects the macro-statistical data of Yulin City from2005 to 2020 and the tracking survey data of the research group in 2016,2018 and 2020,and first calculates the carbon emissions of the planting industry using the life-cycle method,Analyze the time series change characteristics and spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emissions from planting industry in Yulin under the policy of Grain for green;Then build a PSM model to verify the impact of the policy of Grain for green on the carbon emissions of the planting industry,and finally put forward emission reduction suggestions that meet the local conditions.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:First,the policy of Grain for green in Yulin City is mainly divided into four stages:1999-2005 is the initial stage of the first round of the policy of Grain for green;2016-2014 is the consolidation stage of the first round of the policy of Grain for green;2014-2015 is the initial stage of a new round of the policy of Grain for green,;2016-2022 is the consolidation stage of a new round of the policy of Grain for green.Although the policy of returning farmland to forests in Yulin City has achieved significant ecological benefits,there are still many practical problems in the planting industry in the area of returning farmland to forests at this stage.The sustainability of the planting industry in the farmland conversion area of Yulin City is poor,it is mainly reflected in:the cultivated land area is still showing an upward trend,and the planting area of cash crop is continuously increasing..Second,at the initial stage of the policy of Grain for green,the carbon emission level of Yulin’s planting industry showed an upward trend.With the continuous promotion of the policy of Grain for green,the carbon emissions of the planting industry in Yulin City have been continuously reduced.From the perspective of the carbon emission structure of the planting industry,nitrogen fertilizer is the largest source of carbon emissions from the planting industry in Yulin,followed by the carbon emissions from agricultural diesel input.From 2005to 2020,the carbon emissions of the county planting industry in Yulin City showed a spatial distribution characteristic of"high in the west and low in the east".The ecological environment in the western region is poor,which is the focus of the implementation of conversion of farmland to forests.Therefore,the unit monetary value has generated a large carbon emissions,and there is still a large potential for emission reduction.Third,farmers’participation in the policy of Grain for green has a significant positive impact on carbon emissions of planting industry.The carbon emission per unit monetary value of farmers who have not participated in the policy of Grain for green is 973.43KgCO₂eq/10000 yuan,but the carbon emission per unit monetary value of farmers who have participated in the policy of Grain for green is 1335.50 KgCO₂eq/10000 yuan,an increase of362.08 KgCO₂eq/10000 yuan.This result confirms that the participation of farmers in the policy of Grain for green has a significant positive impact on the carbon emissions of the planting industry,which also shows that after farmers participate in the policy of Grain for green,It breaks the traditional equilibrium of farmers’production and operation,and carries out a large amount of planting investment on the land that has not been converted to farmland,resulting in higher carbon emissions from the planting industry.Fourth,from the perspective of the impact of participating in the the policy of Grain for green under different degrees of part-time employment on carbon emissions from the planting industry,pure and part-time farmers’participation in the the policy of Grain for green has a significant positive impact on carbon emissions from the planting industry.From the perspective of age heterogeneity,although farmers at different ages have significantly and positively affected the carbon emissions of planting industry after participating in the policy of Grain for green,farmers over 60 years old have caused greater carbon emissions of planting industry.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations:（1）strengthen the supervision of agricultural means market;（2）Strengthen agricultural technology training and vigorously develop low-carbon agriculture;（3）Strengthen publicity to improve farmers’awareness of low carbon;（4）Formulate carbon emission reduction measures according to local conditions in order to provide some reference for the realization of ecological civilization revival.