Research On Spatio-temporal Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emissions In China’s Logistics Industry

With the proposal of the national dual carbon goal,various industries in China are committed to energy conservation and emission reduction.As an important force in the development of the national economy,the logistics industry should contribute a greater proportion of emission reduction.Based on the provincial panel data from2004 to 2019,and based on the analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution trend of carbon emissions in China’s logistics industry,this paper uses spatial econometric model and synthetic control method to study the influencing factors of carbon emissions in China’s logistics industry.According to the results of empirical analysis,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward to achieve the carbon reduction target of the logistics industry.The main contents of this paper include:(1)From the perspective of time trend and spatial distribution difference,using Arc GIS software to visually analyze the development of China’s logistics industry and carbon emission level from 2004 to2019;(2)Using spatial econometric global model(spatial lag model)and local model(geographically and temporally weighted regression)to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emission in China’s logistics industry;(3)Taking Beijing as an example,the synthetic control method is used to analyze the effect of policy factors on the reduction of carbon emissions in the logistics industry.The results show that:(1)There is an obvious temporal and spatial difference in the carbon emission level of China’s logistics industry;(2)The energy factor plays the most obvious role in promoting the carbon emission of the logistics industry,followed by the economic level and population structure.The industrial structure has an obvious inhibitory effect on the carbon emissions of the logistics industry,and the development factors of the logistics industry have little impact on the carbon emissions;(3)The carbon emissions trading scheme can reduce the carbon emissions of the logistics industry in pilot provinces and cities,so it should continue to be promoted.The innovation of this paper mainly lies in:(1)In terms of research content,when selecting the influencing factors of carbon emissions,this paper includes policy factors to make the influencing factors as comprehensive as possible;(2)In terms of data selection,this paper uses the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2019,which has a large time span and wide spatial distribution,which can better reflect the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of carbon emissions in China’s logistics industry;(3)In terms of research methods,this paper uses spatial econometrics based on the extended STIRPAT model and synthetic control method.These empirical methods are the focus of research in recent years,which ensure the forefront of the research.