Regional Water Cycle Health Assessment And Forecast Based On Immune Mechanism

Water resources are the baseline of mankind civilization,and the healthy advancement of water cycle is the prerequisite and baseline of the healthy advancement of human society.In the context of the ’ natural-social ’ dual attributes of the regional water cycle,scientifically evaluating the health status of the regional water cycle and proposing methods to accelerate the health of the water cycle are of great practical meaning for facilitating the sustainable development of water resources.Based on the connotation of healthy water cycle and biotical immune mechanism,this article constructs a water cycle health assessment criteria system containing 22 indicators from the visual angle of water resources,economic society and ecological environment.The subjective and objective weighting-cloud model water cycle health evaluation means is used to dynamically appraise the water cycle health status of Zhengzhou City and Luoyang City,and the time-lag gray prediction model is used to simulate and predict the future water cycle health status of Zhengzhou City and Luoyang City.The chief research details and ultimateness of this article are as follows :(1)On the basis of illustrating the notion and significance of healthy water cycle,a water circulation health evaluation index system including water resources,economic society and ecotope was constructed.The principal component analysis method was used to screen out 22 water cycle health evaluation indicators,including per capita water resources,water production modulus,water resources exploitation and utilization rate,water consumption per ten thousand yuan GDP,natural growth rate of permanent population,water consumption per ten thousand yuan industrial added value,COD emission,ammonia nitrogen emission,groundwater depth decline,proportion of external water transfer to water supply,proportion of reclaimed water to water supply,proportion of water conservation to water use,effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water,assessment level of strictest water resources management implementation,per capita urban road area,proportion of tertiary industry to GDP,per capita GDP,expenditure on science and technology and education to total fiscal expenditure,sewage treatment rate,water quality compliance rate of water function area,proportion of ecological environment water use,and urban greening coverage rate.(2)The AHP means and entropy weight means are used to calculate the weight of Zhengzhou City and Luoyang City,and the combined weight is obtained.Then using the theoretical knowledge of cloud model,the means of subjective and objective weighting-cloud model is established to evaluate the health of water cycle.The consequence reveal that the water cycle of Zhengzhou City gradually increased from2011 to 2020,but the shortage of water resources and the large amount of ammonia nitrogen emissions are still the main obstacles to the healthy development of the water cycle in Zhengzhou City.We should reduce the use of water resources and increase the available water sources to protect the ecological environment.The change of health status of water cycle in Luoyang City from 2011 to 2020 is reduced,which is because the economic development is relatively slow and the industrial water consumption is relatively large.For the time to come,notice would be taken to improving the economic progress and the efficiency of industrial water consumption.This evaluation result can better reflect the health state of regional water cycle.(3)For the sake of aright illustrate the progress of the health status of water cycle,it is necessary to take into account the lagging characteristics of the indicators,and the time-delay parameter is introduced into the traditional grey prediction model to construct a time-delay grey prediction model which is more suitable for the water cycle health evaluation and prediction.The consequence show that the water cycle health status of Zhengzhou City is good,and it is expected to reach level I in 2022 and keep it.The health status of water cycle in Luoyang City from 2021 to 2025 is relatively stable,and it is expected to reach grade I(very healthy)in 2025.Combined with the coupling relationship between regional healthy water cycle in water resources system,economic and social system and ecological environment system,some suggestions are put forward to improve the health status of regional water cycle,such as increasing water supply source,saving water,improving water resources management system,rationalizing industrial structure,coordinating economy and ecology,strengthening ecological environment restoration and strengthening ecological civilization construction.