Research On The Risk Of Fire Domino Accidents And Prevention And Control Measures In Oil Tank Areas

In In order to fully solve China’s energy security problems and enhance the energy crisis response capability,China has built a large number of oil reserves;dense and large capacity of storage tanks,once a single tank fire,may cause extremely serious fire domino accident.At the same time,since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict,the international situation has become increasingly tense,"Nord Stream" pipeline and other major civilian infrastructure attack has become the norm,for the future of China’s oil tank risk prevention and control has sounded the alarm.Therefore,it is urgent to carry out research on the risk of fire domino accidents and prevention and control measures in China’s oil tank farms for a rainy day.In this paper,we focus on the fire domino effect in a typical oil reserve tank farm in China,and conduct a study on the risk of fire domino accidents in oil tank farm and the prevention and control measures.(1)The methods of calculating domino accident expansion probability of large oil tank areas based on Probit model,risk evaluation process and consequence assessment based on Bayesian network are established to overcome the limitation of calculating domino expansion probability of large storage tanks.(2)A Bayesian network-based model of domino accident propagation process in tank areas and a dynamic personal risk evaluation method were established,and combined with typical case analysis to determine the probability of domino accidents at all levels and the dynamic personal risk values at the time of domino accidents,and finally the key targets and high-risk areas for risk prevention and control were discovered.Using Bayesian probability inference,posterior probability inference under different evidence is performed to identify the equipment units that should bestrengthened for prevention and control with the greatest impact on the accident propagation process.At the same time,the change of personal risk value over time when domino accident occurred in the tank area was studied by using the dynamic evaluation method of personal risk in the tank area,and the results showed that the whole area was in the high risk area 40 min after the accident.(3)Based on the policies related to the prevention and control of domino accidents in China and the risk assessment results of fire accidents in tank areas,a system of risk prevention and control measures for oil tank areas is proposed from five aspects: tank area planning,tank group safety design,daily management,emergency rescue,and post-disaster accident recovery.For the tank group safety design device,FDS was used to carry out a numerical simulation study of the performance of the sprinkler water device under storage tank fire conditions,and its protection efficiency was determined to be 20%.The fire protection layer can extend the tank failure time by 5min,and the comparison of the study finds that the tank failure time is extended by 12-25 min when considering the normal start of the tank protection device,and the probability of domino effect accidents at all levels is significantly reduced.This paper explores the propagation process of domino fire accidents in large oil tank areas,establishes the calculation of the probability of expanding domino accidents in large oil tank areas,risk evaluation process,accident consequence assessment method and accident propagation process model,carries out a typical case analysis and clarifies the risk target equipment units in the propagation process,and proposes a targeted system of prevention and control measures for domino accidents in tank areas.The research results provide theoretical support for the prevention and control of oil tank fire accidents,emergency response and daily safety management,and are of great significance to improve the risk control of major hazards and the ability to respond to domino accidents in tank areas.