Study On Fire Risk Of Large Crude Oil Tank Farm Based On Domino Effect Analysis

With the gradual increase of petroleum reserve demand,the large capacity of a single tank and the intensive design of buildings and facilities in storage tank zones have become the directions for the construction and development of tank farms in China.Dozens of large crude oil storage tanks are closely arranged in an area,and the storage capacity of a large crude oil tank farm can reach millions of cubic meters.If a serious fire accident occurs in the large crude oil tank farm,the domino effect may be triggered,resulting in the catastrophic consequences.In recent years,the proportion of domino fire accidents in tank farm fire accidents has shown an upward trend,so the risk analysis of domino fire accidents in large crude oil tank farms has become increasingly important.A method considering domino effect for the fire risk analysis of tank farms has been established.There are three parts of the domino risk assessment have been studied in this paper based on a comprehensive study of domino effect theory and statistical analysis of domino accidents,which include escalation probability of accident,effect of safety protection,and escalation mode of domino accident.(1)The thermal response simulation of 100,000 m~3 external floating roof tank under fire conditions is conducted.The failure criterion of tank time-to-failure(TTF)exposed to pool fires has been determined.The calculation formula of tank TTF related to the heat radiation intensity and the filling level is obtained based on multiple sets of simulation results,which is used to calculate the escalation probability of tank exposed to pool fires.(2)The performance of the water deluge systems equipped in the tank farm under fire conditions is simulated through the fire simulation software.The heat radiation mitigation factor is introduced to quantify the performance of the water deluge systems.The performance of the fireproofing insulation layer equipped in the tank farm under fire conditions is obtained through finite element simulation.The role of safety protection in preventing domino fire accidents has been studied,and the calculation formula of the TTF considering safety protection has been established.(3)The Static Bayesian Network and the Dynamic Bayesian Network are combined to establish the risk analysis of domino effect based on the Bayesian Network.The Static Bayesian Network model is used to calculate the accident probability of each tank unit in the tank farm.On the basis of Static Bayesian Network analysis,the Dynamic Bayesian Network model is used to conduct dynamic analysis of the accident probability of each storage tank during the domino accident.The domino effect is introduced into the fire risk assessment of large crude oil storage tank farms in this paper.A more in-depth study on the escalation mode of domino fire accident has been conducted,and the effective prevention and control methods of domino fire accidents has been explored.The research results of this paper provide a scientific basis for risk assessment and safety management in large crude oil storage tank farms.