Simulation Of Regional Air Pollution Control Policy Based On System Dynamics

In recent years,the frequent occurrence of heavy air pollution has attracted wide attention from all walks of life.The state and governments at all levels have taken a series of actions to improve air quality.In this paper,the air pollution prevention and control policies issued by China in recent years were reviewed,and a simulation model of regional air pollution comprehensive control policies is constructed by using system dynamics.Taking Tianjin as an example,the global optimization algorithm combining L-BFGS and Basin-hopping algorithm is used to calibrate the model parameters to ensure the accuracy of the model,and then evaluate and compare the environmental and economic benefits of different policies.The future emission reduction effect is predicted based on reality,and the effect of policy synergy is evaluated by using machine learning method,providing reference and suggestions for policy formulation and implementation.The results show that energy policy and technological progress have a direct effect on energy and pollutants,and the environmental quality improvement effect is good,and the environmental benefits of technological progress are increasingly prominent with the change of time.Comprehensive policies have the best environmental benefits,but the highest economic costs.When a variety of policies act in concert,the optimal order of policy implementation is different under different evaluation objectives.To achieve the coordinated development of economy-energy-environment,industrial structure adjustment,clean energy replacement and pollutant treatment should be coordinated to comprehensively improve the level of governance.By implementing relevant policies and focusing on adjusting industrial structure,improving energy efficiency and optimizing energy consumption structure,the emission reduction target can be basically achieved by2030.Among them,energy policy and technological progress will have a broader prospect in reducing emissions of pollutants.Therefore,the implementation intensity of various policies should be reasonably determined,policies with different characteristics should be implemented with each other,the policy support and management system should be improved,environmental benefits should be improved and economic costs should be reduced.