The Assessment Of Air Pollution Prevention And Control Policies’ Effect On China’s PV Power Generation Industry

Alone with the worsening of China’s haze problem,air pollution prevention and control has become a people’s livelihood problem which attracts the most attention.From the promulgation of the the most stringent air pollution control policy "air pollution prevention action plan" in 2013,to "Atmospheric Pollution Prevention Act" in 2015,and then to the latest "Implementation Plan of Pollutants Emission Permits System”,China has been paid more and more attention to the improvement of air quality.China try get out of the difficulty of enhancing air quality by transforming energy structure,and strengthening emission management.As the most promising clean energy,photovoltaic power development is bound to face new development opportunities and challenges.Therefore,it’s necessary to assess the influence of air pollution control policies in advance,determine policies’ mechanism and effectiveness;predict the future trend of photovoltaic power generation industry,help the photovoltaic business figure out development direction;and provide the goverment with reasonable suggestions.Based on analyzing the contents of air pollution prevention policies and the present situation of China’s photovoltaic power generation industry,this paper assess the mechanism and efficiency of single air pollution prevention and control policy,and determine the comprehensive benefits of a single policy by analyzing the state of power market equilibrium,which provides the basis for evaluating the influence of combined policies.Secondly,a system dynamics model of simulating China’s photovoltaic power generation industry is constructed,and the validity of model structure and behaviorare testfied using the sensitivity analysis method.Thirdly,this paper divided the air pollution control policies into basic policies and supporting policies,according to the introduce institutions and the action objects,and then set the system dynamics model parameters and control equations according to the actual policy contents.And then judge the impact of policy effect by comparing the scenario simulation results of the development of photovoltaic power generation industry in different policy environments.Finally,the policy effect is compared with the policy target to evaluate the policy effects,and some policy recommendations are put forward.With the improvement of air pollution control policies,photovoltaic power generation industry in China will also face an ever-changing developing environment.The system dynamics simulation model we built in this paper provides a general platform for the prediction of photovoltaic power generation in different policy environments.Different scenario analyzing results can be got by adjusting the corresponding model parameters.The effectiveness and efficiency evaluation results of single and combined air pollution prevention and control policy on photovoltaic power generation industry obtained in the paper can determine the effectiveness of relevant policies,and provied policy makers with revision suggestions in the process of policy implementing.