Simulation Of Land Use Change And Carbon Storage In Shanghai Based On Multi-model Integration

In order to cope with global climate change,China has solemnly promised to achieve the ’ 30 · 60 ’ dual carbon target.As one of the three major ecosystems on earth,terrestrial ecosystem is considered to be the most environmentally friendly and feasible carbon pool to alleviate the increase of CO2.Among them,land use change is the main factor affecting the carbon sequestration capacity of soil carbon pool.It is very important to study the relationship between land use pattern and carbon storage distribution pattern to further enhance its carbon sink function.Among them,land use change is the main factor affecting the carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystems.Studying the relationship between land use patterns and carbon storage distribution patterns is extremely important for further improving its carbon sink function.Taking highly urbanized Shanghai as an example,this paper analyzes the characteristics and differences of land use in Shanghai from 2000 to 2020 in terms of area,dynamic degree and transfer matrix by using ESA CCI,Globe Land 30 and MODIS MCD12Q1 land use data sets from 2000 to 2020.By introducing the voting method and different integration strategies,the three data sets are integrated to generate integrated land use data that can comprehensively reflect the three data characteristics,and the MCE-CA-Markov model is established to construct strategies I and II to predict the land use pattern of the study area in 2030.The carbon storage module of terrestrial ecosystem in In VEST model was used to estimate carbon storage,and the carbon sink capacity of different regions and land types was analyzed in order to provide a theoretical framework for low-carbon management and sustainable development of land use.The main results are as follows :(1)From 2000 to 2020,the three land use datasets of ESA CCI,Globe Land 30 and MODIS MCD12Q1 all showed the overall trend of construction land occupying cultivated land.There are differences in the area proportion,change speed and flow transfer of different land data sets in the same period.(2)Based on the land use data of ESA CCI,Globe Land 30 and MODIS MCD12Q1 datasets in 2000 and 2010,the land use pattern model and the actual land use map of the three land use datasets in 2020 based on the MCE-CA-Markov model were compared.The Kappa coefficients were 0.89,0.77 and 0.82,respectively,indicating that the MCE-CA-Markov model constructed in this study can meet the needs of modeling and prediction in the study area.(3)The simulation accuracy of Strategy I and Strategy II is 0.92 and 0.96 respectively.The prediction shows that the proportion of construction land in Shanghai will exceed the proportion of cultivated land in 2030,and the area of forest land,grassland and wetland will increase.(4)The calculation and analysis results of carbon storage module show that the contribution of cultivated land and construction land to carbon storage in Shanghai is greater,and the carbon sequestration capacity of forest land and grassland is stronger.The carbon storage in Chongming District and Pudong New Area has been in a leading position for a long time,and the carbon storage in the inner ring area is relatively stable.The total carbon storage in Fengxian District,Jinshan District,Songjiang District,Qingpu District,Jiading District,Minhang District and Baoshan District decreased in turn and were in a downward trend.The distribution of carbon source area is more concentrated and tends to develop to the outer suburbs.The distribution of carbon sink area is more uniform and continuous,and the area of carbon balance area increases.(5)In the north of Jiading,the center of Songjiang City,the northwest of Jinshan District,the northwest of Fengxian District and the central part of Pudong New Area,the scale of construction land should be controlled,the industrial transformation should be completed as soon as possible,the stock of land should be put to good use,the low-carbon landscape should be designed,and the government,enterprises and public social responsibility should be strengthened.The research results can provide decision-making basis for ’ carbon peak and carbon neutrality ’ management and low-carbon sustainable development in Shanghai.