Research On Carbon Emission Effects Of Land Use And Forecast In Xuzhou Based On CA-Markov Model

In order to solve and respond to the problem of global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions,China has made clear the positioning of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Land use carbon emission is an important issue in the current low-carbon development of cities.Understanding the change of regional land use and the law of land use carbon emission are beneficial to optimizing land use structure,and then achieving low-carbon emission reduction and sustainable development of economy.This article took Xuzhou as the research area,used the land use data of 1980,1990,2000,2010 and 2020.It investigated the change of land use in four aspects:quantitative change,dynamic change,spatial transition and influencing factors of land use;The CA-Markov model was used to predict the land use of Xuzhou in 2020 and2030;Conducted a study on the impact of carbon emissions from land use,analyzed the development trend of carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity,calculated land use carbon emissions in 2030,and gave some recommendations and measures for the development of low-carbon cities in the future based on the actual situation of Xuzhou.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)In the aspect of the quantity of land use,the land use whose area decreases are arable land,forest land and grassland,the land use types whose area increases are construction land,water and unused land increased from 1980 to 2020;In terms of single dynamic degree of land use,it is relatively low for cultivated land and water,and greatest for grassland;In the aspect of the comprehensive dynamic degree of land use,the land use change is relatively violent in the period of 2000-2010,the land use development is relatively flat in the period of 1990-2000,and the intensity of land development slows down in the period of 2010-2020 due to the policy of low carbon development;In terms of spatial transformation of land use,urbanization development inevitably leads to the conversion of cultivated land to construction land as the main body of land use conversion;Different land use types have different reflections on the five influencing factors of elevation,slope,water,road and administrative center.The cultivated land is greatly affected by slope,elevation and administrative center.The farther away from the administrative center in the buffer zone,the more suitable for the development of cultivated land;The distribution conditions of forest land are less restricted,suitable for distribution in areas with elevation higher than 10 meters and slope of 2-15 degreess;The water area is more affected by natural geographical factors,and it is mainly distributed in areas with an elevation of 10-50 m and slope of less than 6 degrees;Human activities on construction land are intense and there are many influencing factors.The closer the buffer zone is to the road,water and administrative center,the more conducive to the development of construction land.(2)In the study of land use prediction,the simulation results of land use in 2020 show that the prediction effect of CA-Markov model coupled with MCE module is better than that of the traditional CA-Markov mode.Projections for land use of 2030 are based on land use data of 2020,and the results indicate that the area and proportion of forest land and water will decrease,while grassland,construction land and unused land will increase.(3)Calculate the land use carbon emissions based on the land use data,explore the change rules of carbon emissions from the perspective of time and space,and further assess the level of carbon emissions through the intensity of carbon emissions.The results show that the land use carbon emissions from 2000 to 2020 can be divided into two stages: Net carbon emissions increased 44.327 million tons from 2000 to2015;From 2015 to 2020,net carbon emissions decreased by 21.4809 million tons.The intensity of carbon emissions per capita increased first and then decreased.The intensity of carbon emissions per unit of GDP continued to decline,indicating that the level of land use carbon emissions gradually increased;The land use carbon emissions in 2030 are calculated based on the predicted data of land use in 2030.The results show that the land use carbon emissions will decrease by 8.5074 million tons compared with 2020,with a possible reduction of 23.5%.At the same time,the intensity of carbon emissions per capita and per unit of GDP will decrease.Finally,in order to successfully achieve the goal of low-carbon city development,it summarized the existing problems of low-carbon development in Xuzhou,and made out specific proposals and measures.