Study On Influence And Spatial Spillover Effect Of Carbon Trading Pilot Policy On Industrial Structure Upgrading

As we all know,China is facing huge challenges such as reduction of population dividend and high pressure on energy saving.China’s energy consumption occupies the first place in the world,the energy structure takes coal as the core.It is important to optimize the economic structure and achieve low-carbon economic development.The carbon pilot policy has been implemented formally since 2013,the regional distribution included 7 provinces.The carbon pilot policy is conducive to the realization of the dual-carbon goal,it mainly applies market mechanism to drive enterprises to improve energy utilization and reduce carbon footprint by generating a stable market between the market entities.This paper adopts provincial panel data from 2009 until 2020 through extensive reading for domestic and foreign relevant literature.It also reaches effectiveness of the carbon pilot policy on industrial optimization by conducting difference-in-difference model and a range of robust tests.At the same time,this paper establishes intermediary effects model in order to find out the mechanisms of the policy on industrial optimization.Due to the differences of geographical distribution and economic level,the industrial optimal results exist regional disparity.Based on spatial perspective,This paper further applies Moran’s I to test the spatial auto correlation of the primary variables.Besides,this paper also designs spatial econometric models to discuss the spatial spillover effects from different dimensions.Empirical research findings:(1)There is obvious acceleration to sophistication and low-carbon of the industrial structure,the influence to industrial rationalization will be tested to go a step further.Besides,the models have passed the parallel tendency and dynamic test.(2)The test of intermediary variables indicates that the R&D intensity plays a partial mediating effect at a national level.In other words,the carbon pilot policy can boost industrial upgrading and low-carbon by increasing R&D expenditure.(3)There is better performance on industrial structure upgrading in the central and western regions through analyzing regional differences.It means that the carbon trading pilot policy is more likely to promote low-carbon technological transformation in those mid-western provinces.(4)In accordance with Moran’s I test,there is spatial auto correlation between the primary variables which shows the rule that high value converges with high value and low value converges with low value.(5)The spatial spillover effect of the carbon pilot policy is significant and positive.It can affect the optimization of the industrial structure on surrounding areas.Finally,based on well-known theories and substantial evidences,this paper proposes some relevant policy suggestions:accelerate the low-carbon innovation;consummate the relevant carbon trading mechanism;decentralized geographical layout to strengthen the radiation effect;define reasonably encouragement and punishment measures.These measures help promote economic transformation and low-carbon development.