Deduction Of Ship Fire Emergency Rescue Plan Based On Dynamic Bayes Network

In recent years,with the continuous development of the shipping industry,ship fires have also occurred from time to time,leading to significant casualties and property losses,seriously hindering the further development of water transportation.In the implementation process of ship fire emergency rescue,if the execution process of the emergency rescue plan can be dynamically deduced,it will help the emergency command personnel to command the emergency response process in an orderly manner.The advantage of dynamic deduction is that it can enable decision-makers to grasp the overall situation wholly,in addition,it can also delve into the various handling details of the accident scene from a local perspective,greatly improving the efficiency of emergency rescue and reducing the losses caused by the accident.The research content of this article is mainly aimed at the current situation that the evolution path of ship fire accidents is fuzzy,the evolution process is difficult to predict,the ship fire emergency rescue plan is not complete and clear,and the decision-making core in the emergency rescue process is difficult to make efficient emergency measures in a short time.Based on the investigation of the evolution law of ship fire accident scenarios,this thesis proposes a scenario based on situation event(I),the objective environment(E)and emergency measures(M)and this three elements are used to analyze the path of the evolution of ship fire accident scenarios.This method builds a dynamic scenario network for ship fire accidents based on dynamic Bayesian theory and pessimistic decision-making criteria.Using joint probability formulas and information diffusion theory,the state probabilities of corresponding node variables are calculated,and the key scenario deduction for ship fire accidents is realized.After that,the characteristics and emergency rescue strategies of fire accidents in the cargo hold,engine room,and living quarters of ships are described.Taking the fire accidents in the cargo hold of the bulk cargo ship "Xie Chuan Lun",the fire and explosion accidents in the engine room of the "Fengsheng You 8" ship,and the fire accidents in the living quarters of the "YE CHI" ship as examples,the scenario deduction process and key technologies for ship fire emergencies are demonstrated using the methods proposed in this thesis,and the results of the scenario deduction are analyzed,In order to find the key points for improvement and improvement of existing ship fire emergency rescue plans,and provide corresponding theoretical support for further improvement of ship fire emergency rescue plans in the future.The biggest characteristics of the development and evolution of ship fire events are randomness and continuity,which is also the biggest problem of emergency rescue.The scenario inference method which is based on dynamic Bayesian networks could help to deal with issues of randomness and uncertainty in the research of ship fire scenario inference.The establishment of scenario network paths solves the problem of accident continuity through deduction,opening up a new path for the study of ship fire accidents.Select situation events(I),objective environment(E),and emergency measures(M)as the component elements of the scenario,analyze the rule of scenario deduction and development path of ship fire accidents,and combine the dynamic Bayesian network theory to draw the scenario network.Through probability calculation,obtain the state probability of network node variables,and ultimately deduce the accident development path,in order to do accident prevention and emergency rescue in advance.The deductive model has clear thinking,high practicality,intuitive and understandable results,and broad application prospects.