Study On Emergency Expense Evaluation And Decision-making For Ship Oil Spill Accidents

At present,the researches in the aspect of emergency disposal of ship oil spill accidents are less than the aspect of risk assessment and accident causes in advance on the oil spill accidents of ships.Based on this situation,there is an urgent need to find a way to effectively evaluate the cost of oil spill emergency disposal after the accident,quickly and efficiently select the best oil spill emergency disposal scheme,so as to minimize the environmental,social and economic damage caused by ship oil spill accidents.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the cost estimation and decision-making of ship oil spill emergency disposal.Based on studying the problem of ship oil spill pollution by consulting literature and consulting expert,this paper makes statistical analysis on the data of ship oil spill accidents,takes the ship oil spill emergency disposal as the research object,and uses group fuzzy evaluation,evidence theory and Bayesian network method to carry out indepth research on the oil spill emergency disposal cost estimation and emergency disposal decision-making method.Firstly,a Bayesian network structure of ship oil spill emergency disposal cost is constructed,and the conditional probability table of each node is calculated by using triangular fuzzy number,on the basis of which a ship oil spill emergency disposal cost estimation model is established.Secondly,the linguistic variables are used to obtain the weights of decision criteria under different preferences in group decision-making,and the multi-criteria decision-making matrix is obtained according to the evidence fusion rules,so as to establish the quantitative emergency decision-making model of ship oil spill accidents.Finally,a typical ship oil spill accident case is selected for validation.In order to effectively estimate the cost of ship oil spill emergency disposal and obtain the optimal emergency disposal scheme of ship oil spill accidents,a probability estimation method of oil spill disposal cost based on Bayesian network as well as a quantitative decision-making method based on evidence reasoning and decision preference were proposed.The main research results are as follows:(1)According to the causal analysis of types and influencing factors of ship oil spill emergency disposal costs which were obtained by literature review,Bayesian network structure was constructed by genie software.Using conditional probability table of each node established through calculation method of triangular fuzzy number,the estimation model of ship oil spill emergency disposal cost was constructed according to the network inference of Bayesian network structure,so as to obtain the estimation result of emergency disposal cost.(2)According to the typical emergency disposal plan,influencing factors and decision-making criteria of oil spill accidents,the quantitative evaluation methods of different influencing factors were established.Optimal emergency disposal scheme was obtained by weight of each decision criterion and decision criterion values under different decision schemes which were obtained by using group fuzzy evaluation method and evidence reasoning to fuse the evaluation results of influencing factors,respectively.(3)The research results demonstrated that the proposed oil spill emergency disposal cost estimation model and emergency decision-making method could well realize the emergency disposal of oil spill accidents on ships.