Evolutionary Game Study Of Forestry Carbon Sink Trade Cooperation In The "Belt And Road"

In the face of the unprecedented urgency of global climate change,the international community is actively cooperating to address climate change,and reducing emissions and increasing sinks through the carbon market has become a key way for countries around the world to address climate change.Forestry carbon sinks,as an important trading target in the carbon market,have great ecological and economic value and environmental benefits,and have won international support in addressing environmental and climate issues.Most of the countries along the "Belt and Road" are developing countries and emerging economies with complex ecological environments,high dependence on resources for economic development,and generally facing conflicts between development and environmental protection brought by industrialization and urbanization.Large amounts of carbon emissions will threaten the sustainable economic development of the Belt and Road countries and may lead to environmental degradation.In order to effectively cope with climate change and achieve sustainable economic and environmental development,the Belt and Road should be built as a green road.Given the challenges of rapid growth in carbon emissions,the long way to go for carbon neutrality,and the high cost of other immature abatement technologies in the countries of the region,there is a need to find abatement pathways that have ecological and economic benefits and abatement cost advantages.Therefore,this paper takes the countries along the "Belt and Road" as the research object,summarizes the factors influencing the trade cooperation of forestry carbon sink ecological products between regions through the analysis of the current development of forestry carbon sink trade,and constructs an evolutionary game model to study the evolution of the level of forestry carbon sink trade cooperation between groups of countries along the "Belt and Road",and explores the influence of different parameters on cooperation and competition.The results of the study show that(1)the countries along the Belt and Road have the potential to trade forestry carbon sinks within the region.Among them,China,India,Russia and Indonesia are the demand side of forestry carbon sinks,while Myanmar,Turkey,Thailand,Malaysia,Laos and Vietnam,as the supply side of forestry carbon sinks,increase carbon sinks for offsetting carbon emissions due to energy consumption while selling the surplus potential carbon to countries with carbon reduction pressure,so the "Belt and Road Therefore,there is potential for carbon sink trade in major countries of the "Belt and Road".(2)In the early stage when other emission reduction technologies are immature and costly,government incentives have a greater influence on the participation of national emission control enterprises in carbon sink trading than the net benefits of carbon sinks.(3)Initial cooperation status,carbon sink price,cost,carbon sink production volume,incentives and penalties,stochastic risk and net benefits of other emission reduction technologies have an impact on the level and speed of cooperation evolution in the two groups of countries.Among them,price,carbon sink production,incentives and penalties play a positive role in promoting carbon sink trade cooperation in the"Belt and Road" countries,while cost,stochastic risk and net benefits of other emission reduction technologies play a negative role in hindering carbon sink trade cooperation in the"Belt and Road" countries.The cost,stochastic risk and other net benefits of emission reduction technologies have a negative effect on carbon sink trade cooperation in Belt and Road countries.At the same time,policies and management measures have an important influence on the behavior and strategies of participants,so appropriate policies and management measures need to be formulated to promote the development and implementation of the "Belt and Road" forestry carbon sink trade cooperation.